Event:
In the first quarter of 2022, the national general public budget revenue was 6203.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%; The general public budget expenditure was 6358.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. In the first quarter, the budget revenue of national government funds was 1384.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%; The budget expenditure of national government funds was 2478.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.0%.
Core summary:
The tax slowdown dragged down public revenue, and the growth rate of non tax revenue continued to rise. In terms of tax categories: 1) driven by the high price of bulk commodities, the year-on-year growth rate of resource tax is the highest. 2) The growth rate of corporate income tax rebounded sharply because the scale of corporate income tax in March was only about 1 / 6 of that from January to February, so it fluctuated greatly. Considering that corporate income tax is the lagging embodiment of enterprise production and operation, the subsequent growth rate will fall under the influence of the epidemic. 3) The growth rate of land and real estate related taxes has rebounded, and the low base has a great impact. The deed tax, which accounts for the main body, is still in the doldrums, which is consistent with the trend of real estate transactions. 4) The high growth rate of China's consumption tax has dropped, reflecting the impact of the epidemic on China's consumption. 5) China's value-added tax growth has turned negative, and the continuation of tax reduction and tax relief policies for small, medium and micro enterprises may be the main reasons. 6) Personal income tax fell by more than 50% year-on-year. In addition to the impact of the high base, it may also be related to the income of some personnel affected by the epidemic.
The local public financial expenditure is increased, and the sustainability of supporting infrastructure investment remains to be seen. Among the central and local governments, compared with the growth rate in the previous two months, the public financial expenditure at the central level slowed down and the growth rate of local financial expenditure further increased in the first quarter, which is consistent with the tight life of the central government and the stable growth of local governments. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate related to infrastructure increased slightly to 8.5% from the previous value of 8.4%, accounting for 21.4% from the previous value of 21.0%. Among the four infrastructure related items, only the growth rate of expenditure related to agriculture, forestry and water affairs picked up in March compared with that in January and February. This may be due to the increase of agricultural investment to ensure national food security, not the increase of investment growth in agriculture, forestry and water affairs. We believe that the sustainability of public financial support for infrastructure investment needs to be observed.
The growth rate of land transfer fees rebounded slightly, and the growth rate of government fund expenditure jumped under the support of special bonds. At present, the land market is still depressed. In the first quarter, the land purchase area of developers decreased by more than 40% year-on-year. The income growth rate of land transfer fees and government funds may not have bottomed out. With the support of special bond funds, the government fund expenditure in the first quarter jumped from 27.9% in the previous two months to 43.0% in the first quarter. However, due to the early allocation of special bond funds this year, the large-scale fund balance may appear as in 2021, and the cooling of the land market will drag down the income of land transfer fees, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund expenditure is so high that it is difficult to sustain.
Steady Fiscal growth needs to be more active, and there is still more room for public finance. The target of GDP growth in 2022 is relatively high, and the epidemic situation in China has made it more difficult to achieve this target. This requires a concerted effort of policies. Due to structural inflation and interest rate hikes by major overseas central banks, China's monetary easing is constrained, and fiscal policy plays a pillar role in stabilizing growth. The fiscal expenditure in the first quarter has made great efforts. Looking back, there is still room and necessity for further overweight of general public fiscal expenditure.
