Abstract
The rapid development of new energy vehicles has greatly increased the demand for lithium carbonate, especially battery grade lithium carbonate, which is the core raw material for the production of lithium battery cathode materials. Since the price of 53000 yuan / ton on January 4, 2021, the latest price of lithium carbonate on January 6 has risen to 296000 yuan / ton. At the same time, this price will continue to rise under the background of the continuous rising demand for lithium battery, the monthly increase of installed capacity and production scheduling, the low inventory of lithium concentrate and lithium salt in all links and the shortage of smelting energy. In 2022, the shortage of lithium carbonate may further intensify. In 2022, in the face of lower initial inventory, the growth rate of new capacity of lithium carbonate is clearly lower than the demand, and the relationship between supply and demand is more severe in 2022.
Chinese listed companies generally have long-term underwriting agreements with lithium concentrate products from overseas mines. At present, the lithium ore inventory is low and the tight supply of resources at the mine end continues. In addition, there are very few spot ore sources in the market due to the long-term procurement between Chinese smelters and Australian mining enterprises, and the continuous increment of terminal demand promotes the outbreak of demand for lithium products. The bullish intention in the future is strong. Under the extremely tight market of spot ore sources, enterprises have a high intention to get ore at high prices. The high price created by the auction of Pilbara lithium concentrate, the main lithium mining enterprise in Australia, reflects the market’s enthusiastic demand for ore.
We expect that the continuous rise in lithium salt prices will tilt profits to the resource side. Some upstream signing modes are changed. The monthly formula price settlement is signed by long orders, and the sales mode is changed to point order at the end of the month, so as to maximize the profit space. For China, leading enterprises have little impact, because they all choose the integrated layout of resources and smelting; The gross profit of pure smelters / processing plants may gradually decline. It is expected that the global competition for lithium resources will become white hot under the background of the continuous rise in the price of lithium carbonate.
As an important raw material of cathode materials, the price rise of lithium carbonate will be directly transmitted to the price of cathode materials through the pricing mechanism of metal price + processing fee. At this stage, the battery factory has negotiated the price with the vehicle factory, and has gradually established a metal price linkage mechanism, which can effectively transfer part of the cost pressure. However, the market is worried that the downstream price increase may frustrate market demand, especially the new energy vehicle market.
In 2021, the sales volume in the new energy market exceeded the market expectation, and the penetration rate also kept hitting a new high. Therefore, there is no need to worry about the impact of high lithium carbonate price on demand in the short term. According to the latest prediction of China Automobile Association, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles may reach 3.4 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times; In 2022, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales are expected to reach 5.5 million, accounting for about 20% of the total car sales. It is worth noting that the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 7.2% in January 2021 to 17.8% in November, and the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has been close to 20%. The growth of electric vehicle sales will be accompanied by the large volume of core component power batteries. It is estimated that the demand for lithium carbonate will reach 540000 tons in 2022. In 2021, the supply of lithium carbonate in China was only about 229000 tons, with a huge gap between supply and demand.
Meanwhile, according to the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022 jointly issued by the four ministries and commissions, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% from January 1, 2022. In addition, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized. Therefore, the policy has a greater impact on medium and high-end models, but medium and high-end car enterprises have also taken corresponding countermeasures, including price increases. In the long run, the impact of subsidy decline is gradually weakening. In 2021, the market has also experienced a decline policy, and the market has experienced full adjustment and expectation. The development of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will be driven by subsidies to the marketization of endogenous demand, and the industrial development trend will be better in the future.
Weekly meso data
Upstream, US crude oil and natural gas inventories decreased. In terms of coal prices, the futures prices of coking coal, coke and thermal coal all rose. Power coal prices in Newcastle and Richard fell, power coal prices in Europe remained unchanged, and the number of ships at anchorage increased. LME nonferrous futures prices rose, Comex gold and copper prices rose, and Comex silver prices fell slightly. The price of lithium metal rose, the price of tungsten concentrate in Jiangxi rose, and the BDI index rose. In the middle reaches, rebar futures prices rose, spot prices fell, and steel plant capacity utilization increased. The prices of polysilicon materials and photovoltaic modules fell as a whole. Downstream, the transaction area of commercial housing in the top ten cities increased. Pig prices rose, the average price of white feather chicken fell, and the wholesale price index of vegetables in Shandong began to rise.
Risk tip: policy risk
