Key investment points:
Macro view: 1. There is a trend change in the monetary and fiscal policy of the United States to deal with the epidemic. 2. In the past, the United States hedged the demand impact caused by the epidemic through monetary and fiscal policies, but the supply side impact has shown significant negative externalities and affected the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy. With the development of time and the epidemic, the US economic policy is expected to shift from stimulating demand in the past to stimulating supply recovery and curbing inflation. This new economic policy shift will be verified in this round of global covid-19 epidemic development, and will affect the changes in the global economic structure to a certain extent, which is mainly reflected in the impact of U.S. – driven liquidity and aggregate demand convergence. 2. During the epidemic cycle, China’s economic policy focuses on coping with overseas shocks, and takes this time window to accelerate the adjustment of China’s economic structure. With overseas shocks, especially the gradual weakening of inflation pressure driven by the United States, China’s economic policy will return to the long-term sustainable stability framework.
Market view: 1. Under the background of anti inflation in the United States and steady growth in China, the core asset style is established. China’s core assets have become the best choice for global asset allocation. 2. In the process of restoring stability of China’s real estate, long-term interest rates rise, commodities at the front of the real estate chain rise, and overseas commodities fall in the process of anti inflation in the United States.
Trading strategy: 1. Be optimistic about the CSI 300 index and A50 Index, and pay attention to the risk of beta and small and medium-sized stocks caused by style deviation. 2. 2. Optimistic about food and beverage, real estate, automotive electronics. 3. Optimistic about the repair of Hong Kong stock Internet Index and the long-term upward trend of Nasdaq 100.
Market resumption: this week, the performance of the overall sector continued to weaken. Except for finance and stability style, which rose by 2.13% and 0.68%, other sectors fell. There was a phased adjustment in growth style, led by a decline of 4.73% this week. Primary industries fell by more than half, real estate, household appliances and building decoration industries led the increase, while electrical equipment, national defense and military industry and public utilities fell significantly. In terms of valuation, there was little change in the overall industry valuation this week, but most industries fell.
Index performance: in the first week of 2022, the market fluctuated downward, all the main indexes fell, and the gem index fell by 6.80%, leading the decline. The all a, CSI 300, CSI 500, Kechuang 50, Shanghai 50 and Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.61%, 2.39%, 2.50%, 6.63%, 1.56% and 1.65% respectively.
Style performance: all large, medium and small markets fell, led by undervalued sectors. This week, large cap stocks, medium cap stocks and small cap stocks fell by 2.41%, 3.51% and 1.33% respectively. Undervalued value led by 3.68%, overvalued value sector and medium valuation sector fell by 7.41% and 2.18% respectively.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover of major indexes decreased slightly. Except for all a, the turnover rate of major indexes increased significantly month on month. The overall trading activity of the industry is lower than that of last week. Northward capital inflows bucked the trend, and the net capital inflows narrowed. During the week, the top three main inflow industries of land stock connect were: banking, steel and real estate; The net outflow of electronics, food and beverage and national defense industry is large; The number of shares held by the industry increased week on week. The top three are: banking, steel and building decoration industry; The top three decreases are: public utilities, computer and automobile industry. The transaction volume of the two financial institutions decreased slightly, and the net financing inflow increased. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options decreased by 1.51 percentage points, and the current value is 15.32%; The current value of the S & P 500 volatility (VIX) index is 18.76, up 1.43 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend – 10-year Treasury bond is currently – 0.85%, down 0.01 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 54%; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.26%, up 0.06 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 65%, up for two consecutive weeks, and the market risk appetite has dropped recently. Compared with last week, ERP in all popular sectors has risen.
Risk tips:
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected.
