Report summary:
Market review in 2021: before the Spring Festival, the economy accelerated recovery, the market profit expectation improved, and the fund issuance reached a new high at the beginning of the year, so that the market deduced the cross year market with institutions holding together and white horses as the main line. After the festival, the sharp rise in the futures prices of core categories of assets such as copper and crude oil catalyzed the post Festival re inflation trading. Institutional position adjustment was carried out along the cycle, and the plate superimposed the upward yield of US bonds, resulting in the sharp decline of China’s overvalued white horse stocks, driving the adjustment of the A-share market. The Shanghai index fell little supported by undervalued heavyweights, and the gem index was obviously weak dragged down by the decline of overvalued heavyweights. In the second quarter, the market gradually bottomed and rebounded, the three major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen generally rose, led by the gem and Kechuang 50 index. The market differentiated in the third quarter. In July, the gem index and Kechuang 50 index representing growth stocks showed extremely strong performance. The gem index once exceeded the point of the Shanghai index, while the Shanghai 50 index representing traditional blue chips “fell endlessly”. From August to September, technology stocks and undervalued blue chips experienced high-low conversion. The gem and Kechuang 50 index were shaken back due to the decline in the differentiation of technology stocks. The strength of undervalued blue chips led the Shanghai index to rise gradually. In the fourth quarter, the cycle plate weakened, which dragged down the performance of the Shanghai index. Lithium new energy rose sharply, leading the gem index to strengthen, and the sustainability of the plate market became worse at the end of the year. As of December 31, 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.80%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.67%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose – 5.20%, the gem index rose 12.02%, and the Kechuang 50 index rose 0.37%.
Market operation logic in 2022: macroeconomic environment and monetary policy are important variables affecting the trend of a shares. The valuation and supply-demand relationship of A-Shares also play a vital role in the trend of a shares. In terms of macro economy, China’s economy is stable. In terms of monetary policy, the Fed’s monetary policy trend is marginal tightening, China is relatively loose, and “tightening outside and loosening inside, focusing on me” is the main tone. In terms of valuation, there is room for slight uplift. In terms of stock demand, the net capital inflow of individual investors is expected to continue, the issuance heat of public and private funds is slightly lower than that of last year, the entry of long-term funds into the market is expected to increase on a small scale, the growth momentum of wealth management funds is gratifying, the inflow of foreign capital may enter a gentle stage, and the repurchase funds are expected to continue. The overall liquidity environment is expected to improve slightly next year compared with this year. In terms of stock supply, under the comprehensive registration system, the issuance speed of new shares is still high, the refinancing pressure is still large, the lifting scale is high, and the reduction pressure is still large. Delisting, delisting frequency will accelerate. In 2022, the liquidity of A-Shares may show a relative balance between supply and demand.
Market outlook for 2022: (I) general trend research and judgment. 1. Main board Market Outlook: 2022 is not a big year, which is difficult to rise or fall. The shock may be the main tone, the center may rise slightly, and the amplitude will increase slightly, which comes from overseas. The market does not lack structural opportunities, the style will be more balanced, and there will be opportunities for value and growth. 2. Outlook of science, innovation and Beiban: at present, the valuations of gem and science and innovation board are not low, and the valuation premium of blue chip relative value of scientific and technological growth has been obvious. In the short term, we should pay attention to the withdrawal risk, but the scientific and technological growth representing transformation and upgrading is still the main line in the medium and long term. Focus on “specialization and innovation”, select high-quality racetracks, and high-quality horse racing has become the primary task. Small and medium-sized stocks with uncompetitive main business and pseudo growth will continue to be marginalized. (II) industry configuration. 1. Securities: the valuation is low, and the expansion of business helps to improve the performance of securities business. 2. Real estate: Policy correction, from excessive pessimism to repair. 3. Agricultural modernization: optimistic about the subject of agricultural reclamation, advantageous seed enterprises and agricultural machinery concept stocks. 4. “Epidemic damaged” industries: civil aviation airports, tourist hotels, film and television and other “epidemic damaged” industries are expected to usher in a dilemma reversal. 5. Auto parts: with the alleviation of the shortage of chips, the expectation of the whole sector is poor and the performance repair space is large. 6. High end manufacturing: some high-end manufacturing industries such as rail transit and machine tool equipment also deserve attention. 7. New infrastructure industry chain: 5g infrastructure and intercity rail transit. 8. Semiconductors: switch from focusing on shortage and price rise to domestic substitution or subdivided growth enterprises. (III) theme investment. 1. Vocational Education: the development of vocational education can be expected in the future. 2. Digital Economy: Digital industrialization and industrial digitization. 3.5G concept: focus on main equipment manufacturers, base station antennas, RF devices and other fields. 4. Military industry: there may be short-term or shock correction. We can focus on the subdivided fields of aviation, flight weapons, national defense informatization and military new materials, and select the targets with long-term performance support. 5. Pension industry: pension industry ushers in new opportunities. 6. Yuan universe: in the hype stage, throw high and absorb low, and pay attention to the rhythm. 7. Double carbon opportunities: new energy metals and materials, photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment, energy storage, UHV transportation and new energy vehicle industry chain may fluctuate at a high level.
