The US dollar index fell, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed, the Ted interest rate spread narrowed, and China’s capital was loose as a whole. The US dollar index fell last week (20220103-20220107). As of January 4, 2022, the net long position of US dollar rose. The interest rate spread between China and the United States continues to narrow, and the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds rise, which implies the decline of inflation expectations. Overseas, the credit spread of US corporate bonds mostly narrowed, Ted spread narrowed slightly, and the US financial liquidity is still abundant; For China, inter-bank funds are generally loose, liquidity stratification continues to ease, term spreads (10y-1y) have widened, and credit spreads have narrowed as a whole. In terms of trading heat, the overall trading heat of the market increased, and the volatility of military industry, electronics, Dianxin and other sectors increased rapidly. In terms of market performance, the weekly performance of active partial equity funds and gem index are in the lower 5% since 2015; In terms of research, electronics, nonferrous metals, food and beverage, banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, computer and other sectors rank first.
The northward allocation / trading plate has gradually shifted from the growth plate to the financial real estate and some cyclical plates. Last week (20220104-20220107), the northward allocation market bought A-Shares of RMB 2.297 billion, and the northward trading market bought A-Shares of RMB 2.877 billion. In the industry, the differences between the trading plate and the configuration plate have expanded. The consensus is to buy industries such as finance and real estate, steel, construction, chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, light industry, and sell industries such as electronics, military industry, computers, household appliances and consumer services. In terms of style, the configuration / trading plate sells the large-scale growth plate and buys the large-scale / small-scale value and medium-term growth plate, while there are differences between the small-scale growth and medium-term value plates. For the top three heavy positions of the allocation disk, the allocation disk sold Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 986 million yuan, 288 million yuan and 274 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, last week, the allocation disk mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in steel and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions continued to decline, reaching a low since 2021. Last week (20220104-20220107), Liangrong sold a total of 9.315 billion yuan, mainly Buying media, medicine, computer, light industry, electronics and other sectors, and selling Dianxin, financial real estate, nonferrous metals, steel, automobile and other sectors. In addition to media, light industry and consumer services, the proportion of financing purchase in the sector is still at a historically low level. It is worth mentioning that the proportion of financing purchase of financial real estate and some cyclical sectors decreased month on month. In terms of style, Liangrong only buys the market growth plate.
Public offering positions have increased, individual investors have made substantial subscription, and wide-based ETFs mainly held by institutions have been gradually redeemed. Last week (20211227-20211231), the A-share position of the active partial stock fund increased. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its position in the sectors of power and new, electronics, medicine, military industry, nonferrous metals and chemical industry, and mainly reduced its position in the sectors of banking, household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, petroleum and petrochemical. Last week, the application and redemption of ETFs mainly held by institutions began to occur repeatedly, with a small overall subscription. The broad-based ETFs that had been continuously net subscribed were mainly redeemed. ETFs mainly held by individuals are continuously net subscribed first, which means that individual investors may choose to continuously subscribe for funds. By industry, among ETFs mainly held by individuals, ETFs related to financial real estate, medicine, new energy, military industry, science and technology and other sectors are net subscribed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to “bottom” new energy, medicine, military industry, science and technology, while there are differences in the financial and real estate sector. There are great differences between the public offering and its main rival (northward allocation) in the financial sector, old energy (petroleum, petrochemical and coal) sector, real estate and infrastructure chain. For trend traders, Liangrong expressed their preference for technology and some consumer sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought financial, real estate and infrastructure chain related sectors. Overall, the overall consensus of the current market has dropped significantly, and the purchase consensus of various investors in power and public utilities, chemical industry, medicine and other sectors is relatively high. It is worth mentioning that at present, while the financial real estate, building materials, transportation, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors are sold by the active partial stock fund and the two finance, the long-term funds represented by the northward allocation plate are choosing to buy the above sectors. This means that with the expected deduction of “steady growth”, some investors represented by northbound have begun to switch from high growth assets to the value sector represented by finance, real estate, infrastructure chain and cycle, while the transaction congestion of the above sectors is still relatively low.
Risk tip: measurement error.
