China's macroeconomic summary
Since mid December, the central bank has placed more and more emphasis on guiding enterprises to reduce their comprehensive financing costs steadily. It is obviously different from the statement before December. Before December, the statement of the central bank was generally to promote the decline of real loan interest rate and the decline of comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises. From the context of the central bank, "real loan interest rate" refers to the real interest rate, and "enterprise comprehensive financing cost" refers to the nominal interest rate. The attitude of the central bank is more inclined to guide the nominal interest rate of the whole real economy down. This report attempts to use the yield to maturity of industrial bonds (Industrial bonds are an important part of the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises) to understand the changes of nominal interest rate and real interest rate of different industries in the past year to a certain extent.
Overseas macro summary
Global stock market: in December, the number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States unexpectedly recorded only 190000, far lower than the 400000 expected by the market and 210000 lower than the previous value; However, the unemployment rate was unexpectedly better than the market expectation, recording only 3.9%, lower than the expected 4.1% and lower than the previous value of 4.2%. After the data were released, US bond yields rose rapidly, US stocks fell across the board, and the US dollar index fell rapidly. The performance of the overall employment data is not poor, resulting in a rapid surge in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in March, and the US market is facing a double kill of stocks and bonds. Last week, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks fell across the board, of which the NASDAQ fell the most, as high as 5.12%, the S & P 500 fell 2.13% and the Dow fell 0.46%. The three major indexes of European stock market all closed up, and FTSE 100 closed up 1.11%, with the largest increase; France closed up 0.64% and Germany rose 0.4%. Asian stock markets were divided, with the Nikkei down 1.09%, South Korea down 0.76% and the Hang Seng Index up 1.65%. Emerging markets only India rose rapidly, up as high as 3.37%, Brazil fell 2.01%, and the Russian index fell 0.4%. MSCI index fell across the board, with MSCI in developed markets down 1.57%, emerging markets down 0.28% and Asia Pacific down 0.03%.
Bond market: the recovery of the job market seems to be more positive, and the Fed has to calm market sentiment. After pre communication, the market will face greater fluctuations, and the yield of US bonds will rise rapidly. The yield of US bonds rose sharply, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose to 1.76%, and the term premium of 2-10-year US bonds expanded by 4 BPS; German bond yields continued to rise, rising 9 BP to - 0.12%, and Japanese ten-year bond yields rose to 0.12%. Due to the expected warming of interest rate increase, the real interest rate rose rapidly, pushing the long-term nominal interest rate upward faster than the medium-term nominal interest rate.
