The registration system promotes the large-scale expansion of IPO, and direct financing helps the great development of small and medium-sized enterprises
From the opening of the science and innovation board in July 2019 and the first pilot registration system to the listing and trading of the first batch of enterprises under the registration system on the gem in August 2020, the reform of the registration system has achieved fruitful results over the past two years: (1) it has improved the listing audit efficiency of new share issuance and promoted the orderly expansion of the registration system; (2) More diversified and inclusive listing conditions have been set up, opening a listing channel for small and medium-sized scientific and technological innovation enterprises. Based on the experience of the mass entrepreneurship and innovation sector, the registration system reform of the Beijing stock exchange has been optimized in terms of audit time and listing conditions, which is expected to further help the development of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises in the future. At the same time, the central economic work conference in 2021 will write the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system into the economic work arrangement in 2022 for the first time, and the registration system reform is expected to be launched in the whole market.
After the implementation of the new regulations, the new revenue has stabilized and warmed up, and the new revenue in 2021 is still rich
On September 18, 2021, the introduction of the new inquiry regulations promoted the upward movement of the pricing center of new shares, resulting in a sharp narrowing of the first day increase of new shares, and even 12 companies broke on the first day, resulting in a sharp decline in the new income. However, under the regulation of marketization, the increase of IPO pricing has led to the increase of total fund-raising, the decrease of the number of new accounts and the decrease of the shortlist rate have led to the increase of the winning rate. After the superposition break, the quotation of new investors has gradually become balanced, and the new income after the implementation of the new regulations has gradually stabilized and warmed up. At the same time, from the perspective of the whole year, the new income in 2021 is still considerable, and the cumulative new income rate of RMB 300 million class a account is as high as 11.7%. In the context of the overall volatile market in 2021, the bottom position makes little contribution to the income of the new fund, and the new income contribution is the main income source of the new fund. Among them, the average yield of new fund products with a scale of 150-200 million yuan is as high as 10.02%, and the contribution of new income is 71.2%.
It is expected that Beijing stock exchange will create new opportunities to push forward the new earnings in 2022
In terms of mass entrepreneurship and innovation sector, we assume that: (1) sufficient reserve projects will ensure the continuation of the rhythm of normalized issuance, and the upward movement of issuance valuation will promote the continuous increase of average fund-raising. It is estimated that the financing scale of science and innovation board and gem will reach 134.4-259.2 billion yuan and 126-183.6 billion yuan respectively in 2022; (2) The combined effect of the decrease in the number of accounts under the new regulations and the decrease in the shortlisted rate will promote the steady rise of the winning rate. Under the neutral situation, the winning rate of class A / C accounts on the science and innovation board is 0.059% / 0.045%, and the winning rate of class A / C accounts on the gem is 0.042% / 0.023%; (3) The upward movement of the valuation center of new shares under the new regulations will narrow the first day increase. It is expected that the first day increase of new shares on the science and innovation board and gem will be 20% - 60% and 40% - 80% respectively in 2022. According to the above assumptions, we expect that under the neutral situation, the new rate of return of 300 million class a accounts on the science and innovation board and the gem in 2022 will be 2.5% and 3.0% respectively, and the new rate of return of 300 million class C accounts will be 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. In terms of the Beijing stock exchange, driven by the fast issuance rhythm, high placement proportion and deterministic increase, the Beijing stock exchange is expected to become a new source of income enhancement. In the neutral case, suppose that in the next year, the Beijing stock exchange will issue 80 new shares through offline inquiry, with a total financing amount of 16 billion yuan, an offline placement proportion of 55%, and an average increase of 120% in the listing of new shares; It is estimated that in 2022, the 100 million yuan cash account of class a investors and the 50 million yuan cash account of class C investors will generate new revenue of 9.86 million yuan and 4.2 million yuan, which will create enhanced revenue of 3.3% and 2.8% for class a products of 300 million scale and class C products of 150 million scale.
Risk tips: relevant policy adjustments and severe market fluctuations; Conclusions on fund products do not constitute investment suggestions.
