In progress: the progress of infrastructure investment is slow and the force is imminent. The low growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2021 is mainly due to the slow pace of fiscal expenditure, the late issuance of special bonds, and the continuous rise of raw material prices, which have restrained the release of investment. At present, changes in the situation in China and overseas have formed double support for the acceleration of infrastructure investment. From the perspective of China, the setting of "steady growth" and the advance of fiscal expenditure are good for infrastructure investment. It is expected that infrastructure investment will continue to pick up in the future. We are optimistic about the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022; In terms of price, the price of raw materials continues to decline at a high level, and the supply and demand is gradually balanced, which is also one of the factors supporting infrastructure investment. The overall impact of overseas fed policies on China's monetary policy in 2022 is limited, but the increase in interest rates may open up commodity prices or pressure, which is in line with the rhythm of the decline in the price of upstream raw materials in China; Meanwhile, the United States will also strengthen infrastructure in 2022, which will benefit China's economic development and enhance its international competitiveness. Considering the human and financial resources required for infrastructure investment, China's aging will enter a new acceleration period from 2022. Moderately advanced infrastructure investment is also a long-term demand for China's new economic development and enhancing its comprehensive national strength.
Past tense: four trillion and arra at that time. Facing the impact of the financial crisis in 2008, China and the United States both launched infrastructure plans to promote economic recovery, and China launched a 4 trillion investment plan, which played an important role in expanding domestic demand and promoting economic recovery. Compared with the original plan, the implementation has reduced the proportion of major infrastructure investment and increased investment in people's livelihood, innovation and ecology. Under the stimulus of RMB 4 trillion, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to rise, but the positive multiplier effect of infrastructure investment on economic growth gradually weakened after 2013. The United States passed three infrastructure related bills from 2009 to 2016. The implementation of arra is also the main reason why the United States recovers faster than Europe. The actual infrastructure expenditure of the United States surged in 2009 and 2010, but this growth was short-lived. After 2012, the infrastructure operation and maintenance expenditure of the United States continued to increase, while the capital expenditure continued to decrease in the same period of time. From the historical experience of China and the United States, it can be seen that infrastructure investment after the crisis plays a great role in economic recovery. It is expected that infrastructure may once again play an important role in the recovery process after the epidemic.
In the future: focus on the upgrading of traditional infrastructure in the short term and digital infrastructure in the medium and long term. Since the new infrastructure was put forward, the focus has been on digital infrastructure construction, which requires all-round support from innovation chain, industrial chain, capital chain and policy chain. There are still constraints on short-term development, and long-term digital infrastructure and green development are expected to go hand in hand. From the perspective of volume and landing, short-term suggestions focus on the relevant direction of traditional infrastructure upgrading. We combed the documents related to new infrastructure issued by central ministries and commissions since 2020, combed the more likely direction of traditional infrastructure upgrading, and summarized the upgrading paths and subdivided fields of seven traditional infrastructure directions according to the scale of special debt investment since 2019.
Beyond three hours: capital source and risk. The scale of infrastructure investment is affected by both budgeted expenditure and special debt. From the perspective of budget, 2022 may increase compared with 2021, but the range will not be too large, with an approximate rate of about 5%. The scale of special debt will still be large, which will drive the growth rate of infrastructure investment to pick up to a certain extent. At the same time, attention should be paid to the promotion of dissolving the hidden debt of local governments in 2022. The resolution of local government debt risk mainly depends on the territory. Therefore, we still need to be vigilant in high-risk areas, which may have an impact on infrastructure investment in these areas.
Risk tip: the policy release is less than expected, and the inflation pressure is higher than expected.
