Key investment points
Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. This week (12.27-12.31, the same below), the price of pork decreased to 23.39 yuan / kg, the price of pig grain increased to 5.96, the price of chicken was the same as last week, the price of beef decreased, the price of mutton increased, and the prices of vegetables and fruits increased slightly. 2) Industry. The operating rate of small and large capacity coking enterprises rebounded; Rebar prices fell this week and inventories fell; Copper prices rose and inventories fell. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale and retail has improved significantly, and the film box office revenue and film viewers have decreased this week. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased slightly on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities rebounded on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) The stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3639.78 this week, up 0.60% from last Friday; The gem index closed at 3322.67, up 0.78% from last Friday. From the perspective of industry sectors, leisure services, national defense, military industry and comprehensive sectors led the rise, while food and beverage, mining and public utilities led the decline. 2) Bond market. The yield of interest rate bonds declined in an all-round way, the term interest rate spread of interest rate bonds widened, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed. On December 31, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 2.24%, 2.78%, 2.32% and 3.08% respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by - 10bp, - 4bp, - 12bp and - 1bp respectively; This week, the term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 53bp and 77bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by 5bp and 11bp respectively; The interest rate difference between China and the United States closed at 115bp this week and narrowed by 19bp. 3) Commodities. Commodity prices rose and fell this week, rebar, coke, thermal coal and soybean meal futures prices fell, PTA, cathode copper, soybean oil and white granulated sugar futures prices rose, cement price index fell, Nanhua metal index fell, and ine crude oil futures prices continued to rise to close at 496.7 yuan / barrel.
Weekly observation of macro policy. 1) Monetary policy. This week (December 27-december 31), a total of 650 billion yuan was invested in reverse repurchase in the open market, 50 billion yuan was due for reverse repurchase, 70 billion yuan was due for fixed deposit of treasury cash, and 530 billion yuan was invested in the broad open market in the whole week. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 2.03% and 2.29% respectively. In March, Shibor and 1y interbank certificate of deposit yields closed at 2.50% and 2.68% respectively. 2) Policy developments. In December, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, and the prosperity level of manufacturing industry continued to rise; The non manufacturing business activity index was 52.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The composite PMI output index was 52.2%, unchanged from the previous month.
Core view. 1) Pig prices continued to fall and pig grain prices rose. From the perspective of inflation, pork is oversupplied and the pattern of supply and demand is mismatched. Pork prices continue to fall this week, and the price ratio of pig to grain rises this week. From the perspective of supply, the operating rates of coking enterprises with various levels of capacity rose and fell, and the operating rates of small and large coking enterprises rebounded this week. However, due to the weak demand for infrastructure and real estate and the dual control of energy consumption, the operating rate level still maintained a weak pattern, and the supply side constraints remained; Rebar prices fell this week, inventories continued to fall, copper prices rebounded this week, and inventories fell somewhat. From the perspective of demand, the release of chip production capacity has greatly improved automobile wholesale and retail year-on-year, but the film box office revenue and person times have dropped this week; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose month on month, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities rebounded month on month. 2) Production continues to expand and demand is slowly repaired. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to rise. Production continues to expand. The production index in December was 51.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from November, but it still maintained the expansion trend. The production index was higher than the critical point for two consecutive months. The policies of ensuring supply and stabilizing price reduced the production cost and opened the profit space of enterprises. Need to repair slowly. The new order index was 49.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, still below the critical point, but the demand contraction pressure eased and showed a continuous weak repair state. Small businesses are under pressure. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 51.3%, higher than that of the previous month and higher than the critical point. The PMI of small enterprises was 46.5%, lower than that of the previous month by 2 percentage points and lower than the critical point. The difficulties faced by the production and operation activities of small enterprises intensified and the pressure was obvious.
Risk tip: the risk of epidemic spread in China and the risk of inflation exceeding expectations.
