The number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 199000 in December, which was significantly lower than the expected and previous value, the smallest increase since January 2021. 10. The number of non-agricultural employment also increased in November, and the number of new non-agricultural employment again increased to 648000 in October; In November, the number of new non-agricultural employment increased from 210000 to 240000. In December, the unemployment rate continued to decline for six consecutive months, reaching a new low since March 2020. After the release of non farm data, the US dollar index rebounded rapidly after a short-term decline of 20 points; Gold fell $10. The Federal Reserve said at its last meeting in 2021 that it would raise interest rates for the first time as early as March this year. Although the new non-agricultural employment was weak again, the overall non-agricultural data performed well, the household survey data were optimistic, the private sector non-agricultural employment increased, the unemployment rate continued to decline, and the labor participation rate remained at a high level since April 2020, strengthening the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates in March. In terms of industries, there has been a significant increase in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, manufacturing, leisure and hotel industries. Except for the negative growth in employment in retail and government industries, the employment in other industries has remained basically unchanged. On the whole, employment is gradually recovering and improving as a whole. The average weekly working hours in the manufacturing industry fell. With the gradual recovery of the labor market, the problem of repeated growth of working hours was alleviated. The tightening labor market has stimulated strong wage growth, with the average hourly wage above $31 for three consecutive months. Unemployment data has been doing well. The number of people who have completed temporary jobs, re-enter and retired has decreased, providing credibility for the unemployment rate. The decrease in the average length of unemployment indicates that more workers return to work. However, the increase in the number of new unemployed people entering the labor market and the increase in the length of short-term unemployment may be due to the impact of Omicron virus. The new non-agricultural employment in the last two months of 2021 is lower than expected, mainly due to the disturbance of labor shortage and mutant virus. The short-term employment duration will maintain a moderate growth rate. However, the performance of the employment report in December is still strong, the labor participation rate increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the employed population improved, which are good signals. Judging from the minutes of the Fed's meeting, the employment report may meet the Fed's second interest rate increase condition of "full employment". Previously, they thought that the condition of inflation exceeding 2% had been met, so it is difficult to hinder the Fed's interest rate increase in March, and the Fed meeting in January will be the key.
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