Core conclusion
Strategy Yi Bin: actively trade the high-end manufacturing sector with strong downstream demand and accelerated resumption of production and work. This round of epidemic affects industries with damaged production, which will be repaired with the resumption of production and work. We believe that the manufacturing industry should focus on two dimensions: one is the industry with strong downstream demand and high prosperity, and the other is the industry with synchronous recovery of industrial chain and supply chain. 1) In the order of repair, the recovery of manufacturing industry is faster than consumption; 2) Unlike the consumer industry, the manufacturing industry disrupts supply due to the epidemic and can make up for it after the epidemic; 3) With the recovery of production capacity, industries with strong downstream demand will perform better in the repair of the epidemic; 4) Pay attention to industries that can recover the industrial chain in a coordinated manner. Therefore, it is suggested to pay active attention to the main manufacturing sectors in the Yangtze River Delta, such as semiconductor, automobile and supporting industrial chain, and chemical industry.
E-mail he maofei: 1) in the short term, look at the valuation and repair of epidemic mitigation. As the epidemic situation eases, the automotive electronics industry chain and consumer electronics industry chain are expected to usher in valuation repair. 2) In the medium term, look at the profit growth of the high boom track. IGBT, PMIC and MCU are one of the three directions with the highest prosperity at present. 3) Long term, optimistic about semiconductor companies with global competitiveness. Several industrial trends can be seen this year: first, domestic IGBT manufacturers are moving towards high-end, and the proportion of class B vehicles is increasing rapidly; Second, the production capacity of China's 12 inch IGBT wafer production line was released; Third, the situation of power supply exceeding demand continues this year.
With the introduction of the early-stage plan for the restoration of the Internet of things and the Internet of things in the communication industry, it will be beneficial to the resumption of production in the central and local sectors. Focus on two aspects: 1) first, the Internet of things module. Despite the correction of the sector due to the impact of the epidemic, the high demand for the Internet of things is still booming, and the Internet of vehicles and intelligent network connected vehicles will take over, becoming one of the main themes of the downstream application of the module. They are still firmly optimistic about the Internet of things module sector. 2) Second, automobile related intelligent controller and connector sector. The impact of upstream supply chain is short-term and firmly optimistic in the long term.
Metal: with the marginal recovery of logistics and automobile production, the industrial contradiction will switch from the supply and cost side to the demand side. (1) With the recovery of logistics and transportation, the supply of upstream metal raw materials is expected to improve, and the logic of cost push up is weakened. We suggest paying attention to the special steel enterprises affected by transportation problems, resulting in the decline of order shipment and inventory backlog. (2) The demand for steel will be marginally improved after the resumption of work and production of automobiles. It is suggested to pay attention to the key enterprises involved in automobile steel downstream: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (automobile leaf spring and spring flat steel), Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (bearing steel and automobile steel). (3) Logistics has improved, demand has recovered, and the demand for base metals is expected to improve marginally. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement opportunities of supply and demand chain of copper and aluminum processing and manufacturing enterprises: Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (aluminum processing integration), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) (aluminum foil + coal power), Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) (copper pipe, copper bar and other processing)
Yang Hui of chemical industry: we are optimistic about the relief of shipping pressure after the epidemic, the stable middle and lower raw materials, and the reversal of tire enterprise performance + valuation bottom. (1) The margin of ocean freight decreased, and the construction of tire enterprises increased. (2) The stabilization of raw material prices gives enterprises time and space to transmit to the downstream. (3) How does the tire industry develop in the post epidemic era? With the easing of repressive factors such as raw materials, shipping and automobile supply and demand, the performance of each company is expected to continue to pick up. We are optimistic that the leading enterprises will usher in a double-click. Recommend Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , etc.
Risk tip: the progress of the epidemic has exceeded expectations, and the epidemic prevention and control efforts are greater than expected.
