Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, market sentiment continued to be under pressure, the heat of steady growth fell, and consumer trading was repaired. On the one hand, the market profit-making effect continued to be weak, the number of new low-end stocks and vulnerable stocks rebounded again, the leverage sentiment continued to fall, the fund issuance and foreign investment continued to be moderate, and the market sentiment continued to be under pressure; On the other hand, the turnover structure has seen a noticeable marginal shift recently. The steady growth and turnover rate of TMT sector generally dropped and turnover rate generally dropped. The recovery of post harvest recovery and consumption is expected to increase, leading to the warming of the income sectors such as consumer sector and delivery. Baijiu, retail, supply chain logistics and other related industries have significantly increased their turnover, while real estate, medicine, computers and other sub sectors have fallen.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) level of differentiation between rise and fall: the center of rise and fall has dropped in the past Sunday, and the differentiation between February and August has increased. Among them, the median daily rise and fall of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were – 0.85%, – 0.03% and – 0.27% respectively; The differentiation of 28 earnings rebounded to 23.00%, and the degree of transaction differentiation rebounded to 27.
2) transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has rebounded. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changed by 0.13%, 0.99% and 1.02% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 67%, 73.9% and 78.7% respectively. The overall transaction concentration of the industry has rebounded, of which the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries changed by 0.61%, 0.5% and 0.55% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 31.5%, 36.2% and 32.4% respectively.
3) trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has declined. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by – 2.2%, – 0.68% and – 0.13% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 71.6%, 71.4% and 67.1% respectively. The level of trade differentiation in the industry has declined. The trade differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% have changed by 10.72%, 4.07% and – 0.24% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 92%, 88% and 72.2% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) the 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a fell back to 1.97, and the turnover rate of all a fell back to 6.87%. 2) The VIX Index rose 1.15 month on month to 22.70. 3) The number of new stocks in a fell month on month, and the number of new low stocks rebounded month on month. Among them, the number of 60 day high stocks fell to 116 on the 10th, and the number of 60 day low stocks rose to 783 on the 10th; At the same time, the 10 day moving average of the number of record high stocks fell back to 7, and the 10 day moving average of the number of record low stocks rebounded to 165. 4) The number of trend dominated stocks fell. Among them, the proportion of stocks above the 60 day moving average fell to 19.06% month on month, and the number of stocks hit a record high in recent January fell to 46. 5) The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market fell back to 11.90%, and the proportion of weak stocks rebounded to 52.10%. 6) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell to 16.45%. 7) The net outflow of foreign capital decreased to 1.3 billion yuan.
3. Micro liquidity tracking
1) monetary tightness: the net monetary investment is 20 billion yuan, the short-term interest rate is down, the Shibor of each period is down, the interest rate of national debt is down, the credit interest margin of each period is down, and the RMB is depreciated.
2) capital supply: the newly issued scale of partial equity funds was about 1.331 billion yuan, the share of ETF increased by 12.802 billion month on month, the net inflow of funds going north was 2.878 billion yuan, and the financing balance decreased by 22.649 billion yuan month on month.
3) capital demand: there are 7 new IPOs, the initial financing scale is RMB 11.456 billion, the reduction of industrial capital is about RMB 2.455 billion, and there are no new fixed growth projects. In addition, the lifting pressure picked up month on month this week, with the lifting scale of about 61.571 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
