Research conclusion
Event: on April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest economic data. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 4.8%, the previous value was 4%; In March, the industrial added value increased by 5% year-on-year, and the previous value (from January to February) was 7.5%; In March, the retail sales of social consumer goods increased by - 3.5% year-on-year, and the previous value (from January to February) was 6.7%; From January to March, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the previous value (from January to February) was 12.2%.
Considering the rebound of the epidemic, the economic data in the first quarter showed acceptable performance, and the investment overcame the impact of the reduction of the contribution of exports and consumption, which played a strong role in promoting GDP, and the pre effect of the policy was fully reflected: (1) from the average growth rate after the epidemic, the GDP in the five quarters since 2021 has increased by 4.9%, 5.5%, 4.8%, 5.2% and 4.9% year-on-year respectively (2022q1 is the three-year average), In the first quarter of this year, it fell by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous quarter; Under the background of the obvious impact of the epidemic, the GDP in the first quarter increased by 1.3% month on month (quarterly adjustment), which was not much lower than the previous value of 1.5%, which means that the improvement of power and production restriction partially offset the negative impact of the epidemic; (2) The impact of the epidemic and its prevention and control on industrial production and investment is relatively limited. Although the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in a single month in March is worse than that from January to February, it is still higher than that at the end of 2021 (4.3%); From the perspective of investment, the cumulative growth rate from January to march is higher than that at the end of 2021 (4.9%) and 2019 before the epidemic (5.4%). It is worth noting that in the case of shrinking net export contribution and exogenous impact on consumption, the cumulative year-on-year pull of final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net export of goods and services on GDP in the first quarter was 3.3%, 1.3% and 0.2% respectively. Compared with 5.3%, 1.1% and 1.7% last year, investment bucked the trend and increased, accounting for 69.4%, 26.9% and 3.7% respectively (65.4%, 13.7% and 20.9% last year), These characteristics are the concrete embodiment of this year's emphasis on early commencement and early results.
The biggest stall point is consumption, and optional consumption is more impacted. The total retail sales of social consumer goods actually decreased by - 6% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 2.9% in three years, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month, the catering revenue decreased by 16.4% (8.9% from January to February), and the retail sales of goods decreased by 2.1% (6.5% from January to February). Even the cumulative year-on-year growth of online retail sales of physical goods also decreased by 3.5 percentage points compared with the previous value, which may be related to more situations involving logistics stagnation in prevention and control.
The supply chain problems caused by epidemic prevention and control have a negative impact on some industries with long supply chains. For example, the added value of automobile manufacturing industry was - 1% year-on-year in March and 7.2% from January to February; For some industries with short chains and meeting the rigid needs of residents, the resilience is relatively stronger. For example, the added value of agricultural and non-staple food processing industry was 6.1% year-on-year in March, and the decline is limited compared with the growth rate of 6.5% from January to February; At present, the impact of exports on production is neutral. The cumulative export delivery value in March was 14.4% year-on-year (the previous value was 16.9%).
Infrastructure investment continued to grow at a high rate, the growth rate of manufacturing investment slowed down, and real estate investment fell. In March, infrastructure investment increased by 8.5% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, reflecting strong resilience; Manufacturing investment increased by 15.6% year-on-year, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous month; The indicators of real estate sales, investment, newly started area and land acquisition area have not been significantly improved, but the stability of real estate investment is stronger than that of sales.
The data of the first quarter is the result of the game between "progress and rhythm advantage" and "epidemic rebound beyond expectations". Looking forward to the follow-up, how to look at the changes in market confidence and the challenge of completing the annual growth target? We think it is better to be optimistic: (1) on the day of data release, Xinhua news agency released the "ten questions on China's current economy" again, which aims to boost the confidence decline after "the complex evolution of the world situation and the recent multiple outbreaks in China", directly face the market's concerns about "coordinating epidemic prevention and development", and release a strong signal of stabilizing confidence and expectations. Although the latest RRR reduction is less than expected, we believe that the arrangement of deposit interest rates and structural instruments means that RRR / interest rate reduction is not the only means. The monetary policy of steady growth is still in place, but the forms are more diversified, more direct to the real economy and more conducive to growth; (2) If the first quarter has the advantage of progress and the third and fourth quarters have the advantage of base, then for the second quarter, the proportion in previous years and last year's base are not low, and the superposition of the impact of the epidemic has not yet ended, it may indeed become a stage of great pressure, which is also the reason why the current market confidence is not sufficient. However, with the implementation of the policy effect (especially the real estate is expected to gradually hit the bottom and then rise), and the country has learned from the experience on the basis of this round of epidemic, the subsequent economic recovery is still expected to promote the realization of the annual growth target.
Risk tip: the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the supply chain is longer than expected.
