Macro balance sheet: focus on the possibility of LPR interest rate reduction

Macro market:

[central bank] on April 19, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, the same as before. Today, 20 billion yuan of reverse repo expired, so a net return of 10 billion yuan was made on that day. On Friday, the central bank decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25.

[finance] on April 19, treasury bond futures fell slightly, with 10-year main contract falling 0.05%, 5-year main contract falling 0.05% and 2-year main contract falling 0.03%. The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds generally rose. The yield of 10-year Guokai active bond 220205 rose 1.25bp to 3.045%, the yield of 10-year Treasury bond 220003 rose 1.25bp to 2.820%, and the yield of 5-year treasury bond 220007 rose 1.25bp to 2.562%.

[finance] on April 19, the interest rate in the money market leaped obviously, and the inter-bank capital was relatively loose. The one-day interbank borrowing between banks and depositors was reported at 1.294%, down 10.9 basis points; The 7-day report was 1.801%, down 7.5 basis points; The 14 day report was 2.021%, up 11.7 basis points; The one-month report was 2.237%, down 0.8 basis points. The one-day varieties of inter bank pledged repo were reported at 1.2947%, down 8.71 basis points; The 7-day report was 1.7357%, down 5.64 basis points; The 14 day report was 1.9986%, up 7.61 basis points; The one-month report was 2.1915%, up 5.71 basis points.

[enterprise] on April 19, credit bonds and interest rate bonds fluctuated in a narrow range, the yield of credit bonds of various maturities fluctuated, and the credit interest margin was differentiated. A total of 1362 inter-bank and exchange credit bonds (corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium notes, short-term financing and directional instruments) were traded, with a total turnover of 142689 billion yuan. Among them, 810 credit bonds rose, 93 were flat and 408 fell.

[residents] on April 18, the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities and first tier cities was + 3.81% and the area of commercial housing transactions was + 4.40% compared with the previous day; The number of commercial housing transactions in second tier cities was + 1.90% and the area of commercial housing transactions was + 1.93% compared with the previous day. The number of commercial housing transactions in third tier cities was - 0.48% and the area of commercial housing transactions was - 0.64% compared with the previous day.

[policy] the 25th meeting of the Central Committee for comprehensively deepening reform emphasized strengthening the construction of digital government and promoting the reform of financial system below the provincial level.

Recent focus: the pre force of fiscal policy

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