The national standing committee will raise and lower the reserve requirement again, and most night trading commodities rose
On Wednesday (April 13), China’s commodity futures market closed mixed, with crude oil and base metals leading the way. Shanghai nickel, fuel oil and crude oil rose by more than 5%, asphalt and low sulfur fuel oil rose by nearly 4%, and Shanghai zinc rose by more than 3%; Precious metals rose, with Shanghai silver up more than 1% and Shanghai Gold up nearly 1%; Rubber remained weak throughout the day, with No. 20 rubber down 1.55% and rubber down more than 1%; Steel ore futures fell, iron ore fell more than 1%, rebar fell nearly 1% Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) mostly fell, apple futures continued to fall in the afternoon, down more than 3%, and rapeseed meal and red dates fell nearly 1%.
Hot comments: on Wednesday, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection dispatched the discipline inspection team of the CSRC to name the risk management and control of iron ore and thermal coal. The market is worried that the policy regulation will be upgraded again, and the sharp decline of steel and iron ore will drag down black commodities. However, the national standing committee will mention the timely reduction of reserve requirements this week, and it is expected that a new round of easing will be implemented soon, which will stimulate market sentiment, and most commodities rose at night. Looking back, overseas, on the one hand, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is pending, the possibility of reaching an agreement in a short time is low, and the supply chain problem is still prominent, benefiting energy and metal varieties; On the other hand, the Federal Reserve will significantly tighten monetary policy at a fast pace, which will have an impact on future demand. In fact, the upside down of US bond interest rate indicates that the risk of economic recession is increasing. In China, since March, the epidemic in China has continued to expand, downstream demand has been impacted and logistics has been interrupted. However, the steady growth of macro policies has increased, and the epidemic prevention and control strategy is expected to change. After the follow-up epidemic is controlled, the demand is expected to recover quickly. On the whole, internationally priced commodities face a pattern of short strength and long weakness, while commodities dominated by Chinese demand face a pattern of short weakness and long strength. The commodity index may maintain a volatile trend.
1. Black building materials: market sentiment changes rapidly, and black goods fluctuate greatly.
On Monday, China’s epidemic continued to spread, demand was suppressed, and black goods fell sharply; On Tuesday, the social finance data in March was significantly better than expected, the epidemic prevention and control improved, the logistics and transportation recovered faster, stimulating market optimism, and the black series rose sharply; On Wednesday, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection dispatched the discipline inspection team of the CSRC to name the risk control of iron ore and thermal coal. The market is worried that the policy regulation will be upgraded again, and the sharp decline of steel and iron ore will drag down the black commodities; In recent trading days, the long and short factors have switched rapidly, and the high level of black commodities fluctuated greatly.
In the future, although the current demand is still limited by the epidemic and the actual transaction is still not ideal, which may suppress the space for the rebound of the black system, in the medium term, the national standing committee will further propose the timely reduction of reserve requirements, and the intensity of steady growth has increased. The social finance data in March was significantly better than expected, indicating that the steady growth policy has gradually achieved results. In particular, the forward development of finance is expected to drive the continuous recovery of infrastructure investment. At the same time, The top management attaches importance to the dredging of transportation and logistics. All ministries and commissions take favorable measures to restore transportation and logistics, and there are rumors in the market that the epidemic prevention and control strategy will be adjusted (some provinces and cities are used as pilot). In addition, we see that more and more cities relax real estate regulation and real estate sales begin to pick up, which also means that real estate investment is expected to bottom out in the second half of the year. Therefore, the medium and long-term trend of steel can be optimistic.
2. Base metals: supply concerns intensified and metals rose collectively.
There is too much macro support. On the one hand, the situation in Russia and Ukraine worsens again, and the negotiation progress between the two sides is slow, which is likely to form a decisive battle situation in Donbas, and the supply chain problem is still prominent, benefiting non-ferrous metals; On the other hand, China’s steady growth continues, and the expectation of demand improvement is more optimistic. From the perspective of copper fundamentals, the supply of copper concentrate is temporarily abundant, and the processing fee of copper concentrate is higher, but the supply disturbance of copper mines in Chile and Peru is enhanced; Moreover, the epidemic situation in China has disturbed the production and transportation of refined copper. However, China’s downstream demand continued to weaken. Provinces and cities such as Shanghai and Jiangsu tightened epidemic prevention measures, and enterprises such as copper processing and copper rod factories began to reduce or stop production. Both supply and demand are weakened by the epidemic, but under the background of global shortage of supply, the market is more worried about supply, and the metal may fluctuate strongly in the short term.
Precious metals: Despite the ultra hawkish remarks released by the Federal Reserve, there was no significant adjustment in gold, mainly due to the strong support brought by risk aversion + inflation + de dollarization. At present, there are still many uncertainties in the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the upside down of the US bond yield curve indicates that the risk of future economic recession is increased, the demand for risk aversion still exists, and the inflation further soared to 8.5% in March. There is still strong support for gold in the short term.
3. Energy and chemical industry: the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the international oil price rebounds again.
IEA and the United States will release large-scale strategic crude oil reserves, and supply concerns have weakened. At the same time, China’s epidemic continues to spread and demand is facing impact. In addition, the minutes of the Federal Reserve suggest that it will accelerate monetary tightening, the market risk appetite has dropped, and the crude oil price has been adjusted in the short term. However, the negotiations on the situation between Russia and Ukraine reached an impasse, exacerbated supply concerns, and oil prices rebounded again in the past two trading days.
In the future, we believe that the problem of tight supply and demand of crude oil is still difficult to be solved in the short term. First, the possibility of solving the situation between Russia and Ukraine in the short term is low, and the supply chain problem is still prominent; Second, new progress has not been made in the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the possibility of Iranian oil entering the market has decreased in the short term; Third, the disturbance impact of China’s epidemic situation is relatively limited. According to past experience, China will soon control the epidemic after tightening epidemic prevention measures, and then demand will be released quickly. Therefore, we believe that international oil prices still have strong support and are expected to rebound again after short-term adjustment.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) aspect: tight supply stimulates strong oil shock.
Meidou: the reduction of production in South America is a foregone conclusion, and the market focus turns to North America. At present, the progress of corn sowing in the United States is slow, which increases the expectation of the increase of meidou planting area, and makes the price of meidou under pressure in the past two trading days. It is expected that the short-term shock adjustment of meidou will continue.
Soybean oil: data monitoring shows that on April 11, the soybean oil inventory of major oil plants in China was 780000 tons, an increase of 50000 tons over the same period last week, an increase of 60000 tons month on month, an increase of 180000 tons year-on-year, and a decrease of 220000 tons over the same period in recent three years. China’s soybean supply has improved, the soybean crushing volume will continue to increase in the later stage, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to maintain an upward trend. In addition, the recent continuous spread of the epidemic in China may affect downstream consumption. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is repeated, and the crude oil price fluctuates greatly, which also has a certain impact on the price of soybean oil. On the disk, driven by palm oil, the center of gravity of soybean oil continues to rise and wait and see for the time being.
Palm oil: according to the report released by MPOB, Malaysia’s palm oil inventory fell 2.99% month on month to 1.47 million tons at the end of March, a one-year low. The decline in inventory exceeded expectations and stimulated market sentiment. Sppoma data show that from April 1 to 5, the output of horse palm decreased by 16.55% month on month, and the output of horse palm fell unexpectedly in the increase season, supporting the rebound of oil price. According to its data, from April 1 to 10, the export volume of horse Brown decreased sharply by 25.6% month on month, indicating that the export demand has weakened, and the export to China has fallen sharply.
On the one hand, although the output of horse palm continued to rise, the inventory continued to go, supporting the price of palm oil; On the other hand, due to the high price and the impact of the epidemic, the export demand of palm oil has weakened. Affected by both long and short factors, palm oil fluctuates strongly in the short-term or high level. In the medium term, palm oil has entered the production increase season. The market expects that the output of horse palm will continue to increase, and the high price will suppress the growth of demand. The medium and long-term trend of oil needs to be cautious.
