Event:
On April 18, the Bureau of statistics released the economic data for the first quarter and March of 2022. In the first quarter, China's GDP was 270178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices, and a month on month increase of 1.3% over the fourth quarter of 2021; The cumulative value-added of industries above Designated Size, total retail sales of social consumer goods and fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) were + 6.5%, + 3.3% and + 9.3% respectively year-on-year.
It may be more difficult to stabilize growth at present than in 2020
The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 4.8%, and the three-year compound growth rate was 4.9%. Compared with the two-year compound growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year, it fell by 0.4 and 0.3pct respectively, and 0.2 and 0.1pct respectively compared with the two-year compound growth rate in the first quarter of last year. The quarter on quarter growth rate was 1.3%, which was only 0.5% higher than that in the first quarter of 2021. Regardless of the calculation caliber, the actual economic growth in the first quarter of this year was weaker than that in last year, indicating that we are facing greater pressure on economic growth.
In terms of structure, the year-on-year pull of the three industries on GDP in the first quarter was 0.3, 2.2 and 2.3pct respectively, the pull range of the secondary industry increased by 1.2pct month on month, while the primary and tertiary industries fell by 0.3 and 0.1pct respectively, reflecting the obvious impact of this round of epidemic on spring farming and service consumption.
From the demand side, the main drivers of total demand in the first quarter were infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.3 and 2.1 PCT respectively compared with the end of last year; Export growth remained at a high level of 15.8%, but there was still a significant decline compared with last year; While real estate and consumption still constitute a relatively obvious drag, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.7 and 9.2pct respectively compared with the end of last year.
However, it should be noted that the impact of the epidemic on the economy since March is more obvious than that reflected in the data. As Shanghai and its surrounding areas are not only an important trade port in China, but also an important consumption and production town in China, at the same time, the current round of epidemic has formed a situation of "multi-point flowering", the logistics in many places has been seriously hindered, and the supply chain problem has also impacted the production end.
