Core content:
The economy improved in the first quarter, with more impact events. The economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 still slightly exceeded the market expectation. In the first quarter, the economic operation was troubled by many aspects, and the situation was more complex. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began in late February, has brought about supply chaos, financial chaos and global commodity price disorder, as well as inflation expectations caused by rising costs. The global monetary tightening caused by the Fed's interest rate hike in March. In late March, the prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic in China was tightened again, and the blow to the industrial chain and logistics chain should not be ignored. In particular, the closure of Shanghai until April caused most factories in the Yangtze River Delta to shut down, and China's economic growth was facing a huge test.
The supply was slightly stable, and the impact began to appear in March. The industrial production in the first quarter was slightly weaker than that in the fourth quarter of 2021. PMI showed that orders fell, finished product inventories rose, and industrial production was suppressed in the future. Industrial production fell again in March, which was affected by the closure and control of the epidemic, especially the automobile industry. Although the rising price of raw materials has brought the recovery of upstream production, it has suppressed the whole downstream demand. The better aspect is that the export industry remains stable, the export delivery value has reached a new high, and the production of relevant industries is stable.
Manufacturing and infrastructure performed well, manufacturing investment performed well, and manufacturing investment continued to rise. The continuous policy and capital support have driven the investment in the manufacturing industry, and the policy effect has been shown in the manufacturing industry. Infrastructure investment continued to rise. Infrastructure investment rose rapidly in the first quarter, and the issuance of government bonds was fast. Infrastructure investment will continue to rise in the first half of the year.
Real estate and consumption continued to decline. In terms of real estate investment, the leading indicators of real estate, such as land sales revenue, new real estate construction, commercial housing sales area and sales, were all in a downward state. The availability of real estate funds has not improved, and the advance payment of real estate has increased significantly in the beginning of the year, and the funds of real estate developers are relatively tight. Social retail consumption grew negatively in March, with a growth rate of only 3.3% in the first quarter. The epidemic prevention and control has had a huge impact on retail consumption. Cars, petroleum products, real estate related household appliances and furniture, upgraded consumption of gold, silver and jewelry have fallen sharply, and food and drug consumption has risen again. The prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic continued in April, and consumption remained weak.
The policy has begun to exert force and continues to be implemented, and the policy level has responded positively. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio again in April, and the central bank actively coordinated to increase the loan growth rate; In terms of fiscal policy, government bond financing rose rapidly, and bond financing in the first quarter has exceeded that in the first quarter of 2020. On April 18, the central bank and the safe issued 23 measures to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Financial services have fully expressed the positive intention of monetary policy. Next, we need to wait for the change of epidemic prevention and control policies, so that production can gradually return to normal, while the weak consumption fiscal policy can make profits to residents and restore residents' confidence.
The reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates may have to wait again. The economy rebounded in the second half of the year. We may need to wait for the temporary reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, waiting for the effect of the policy and the change of sealing control. The policy has no hesitation in supporting the economy.
