Key investment points:
In March, the overall performance of the carbon neutral 300 index was weak, with a decline of 10.49%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and falling continuously since February 25. In March, the industry weight of carbon neutral 300 index was basically the same as that of last month. According to the first-class industry classification of CITIC, the top five industries with weight were power equipment and new energy industry, accounting for 54.8%, with a total market value of 5281799 billion yuan; The power and public utilities industry accounted for 10.0%, with a total market value of 2370376 million yuan; The automobile industry accounts for 7.6%, with a total market value of 191568 billion yuan; The basic chemical industry accounts for 5.7%, with a total market value of 1386799 billion yuan; The machinery industry accounted for 5.2%, with a total market value of 736629 billion yuan.
Coal: raw coal production continued to grow, and imports fell sharply. Since March, the policy of increasing coal production and supply has been strengthened continuously, and the main coal producing provinces and regions have made every effort to tap the potential and expand capacity and supply. In March, China produced 396 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, 4.5 percentage points faster than that from January to February, with an average daily output of 12.77 million tons; Imported coal was 16.42 million tons, down 39.9% year-on-year, 25.9 percentage points higher than that from January to February. In the first quarter, 1.08 billion tons of raw coal were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. 51.81 million tons of coal were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%. Thermal power decreased by 5.7% year-on-year and increased by 4.3% from January to February.
Nonferrous Metals: the output of ten kinds of nonferrous metals maintained growth. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals in China in the first quarter was 16.17 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; In the first quarter, China’s electrolytic aluminum output was 9.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. In March, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 5.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; In March, China’s electrolytic aluminum output was 3.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.
By the end of March, the CEA price had risen slightly, and the trading volume of the month continued to decline. In March, the trading volume of the national carbon market continued to decline, and the CEA price rose slightly. In March, the total trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 708554 tons, with a total turnover of 399 Tianjin Jiuri New Materials Co.Ltd(688199) 0 yuan. The monthly trading volume of listing agreement trading is 167898 tons, the monthly turnover is 976241190 yuan, the highest transaction price is 59.00 yuan / ton, and the lowest transaction price is 57.00 yuan / ton. The closing price on the last trading day of March is 58.55 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from the last trading day of February. The monthly volume of block agreement transactions is 540656 tons, with a monthly turnover of 3020640800 yuan. By the end of March, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 189030983 tons, with a cumulative turnover of 820847900752 yuan.
The price of carbon quota in South Korea’s carbon market continued to decline sharply in March. The closing price of kau21 was 30100 won / ton on March 2 and 23000 won / ton on March 31, a decrease of 24%; The trading volume fluctuates greatly. The average daily trading volume is 45519 tons, an increase over the previous month. The minimum daily trading volume is 4510 tons and the maximum is 150114 tons.
Risk tips: (1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated; (2) Intensifying geopolitical conflicts (3); Recurrent epidemic
