GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2022, China's GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year. From January to February this year, the economy achieved good growth, but in March, due to the spread of the local epidemic, both supply and demand were significantly impacted; According to our previous special report, the current round of epidemic dragged down the GDP growth rate in the first quarter by about 0.6 percentage points.
The industrial supply chain and service industry have been disturbed by the epidemic
From the production and supply side, the epidemic situation in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places in March caused serious interference to the supply chain, and the growth rate of industrial added value fell accordingly. Due to the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain and production, and the cooling of enterprise orders, the capacity utilization rate also fell in the first quarter.
Transportation, accommodation, catering and other contact gathering industries were greatly affected by the epidemic. In the first quarter, the national service industry production index increased by 2.5% year-on-year, significantly lower than the previous value; Among them, the year-on-year decline in March was 0.9%.
Consumption has dropped significantly, and infrastructure has made steady growth
From the demand side, the external demand was relatively prosperous in the first quarter, but it fell down month on month, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports still maintained double-digit growth. In terms of consumption, the spread of the local epidemic in March led to the adoption of static control measures in many places across the country, which significantly dragged down the consumption of services and durable goods.
The investment in fixed assets has improved on the whole compared with the end of last year. Among them, the investment in manufacturing industry increased rapidly in the first quarter, and the growth rate decreased in March. In the follow-up, we will continue to observe the impact of enterprise profits and orders on the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry. Since the beginning of the year, the reserve of investment projects has been sufficient and the funds have been put in place rapidly, resulting in an increase of infrastructure investment of more than 10% in the first quarter. In terms of real estate, sales and new construction decreased significantly year-on-year in the first quarter. Affected by this, real estate investment was relatively depressed.
The unemployment rate rose month on month
In March, the national urban unemployment rate was 5.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from the end of last year. Since the second half of last year, the decline of the economic growth center has led to a certain pressure on employment.
The impact of the epidemic will continue until the second quarter, and the economy is expected to improve in the second half of the year
The local epidemic is still running at a high level, and its impact on economic growth will continue until the second quarter. It is expected that with the effective control of the epidemic, the economic growth will be improved in the second half of the year.
Risk tips
The economy fluctuated more than expected.
