Main points:
In the first half of April, there was a slight net outflow of funds. During this period, the capital flows of northbound, Liangrong and equity ETFs were -45.14, - 29.559 and + 21.635 billion yuan respectively. The inflow scale from April 11 to April 15 was better than that from April 4 to April 8. During the period from 4 / 4 to 4 / 8 and from 4 / 11 to 4 / 15, the net inflow to the North was -7.250 billion yuan and 2.736 billion yuan respectively; The net inflow of ETF funds was 3.045 billion yuan and 18.590 billion yuan respectively. Only the net outflow of Liangrong increased month on month, and the net inflow of 4 / 4-4 / 8 and 4 / 11-4 / 15 were -4.879 billion and -24.680 billion yuan respectively. The north direction configuration and transaction flow direction are opposite, and the overall north direction flow direction is significantly improved. The inflection point needs to be in early May. At the beginning of April, the term spread of US bonds is now upside down, and the interest spread between China and the United States has gradually narrowed and tended to upside down. Since April, the overall net inflow of northward funds in the two weeks has been - 7.250 billion yuan and 2.736 billion yuan respectively, which has changed the grand occasion of significant net inflow in the last week of March (net inflow of 23.043 billion yuan). The previous impact on northward funds was two "upside down". Among them, the duration of the upside down of the term interest rate spread of US bonds is relatively short, and the main variable is the interest rate spread between China and the United States. After the US interest margin narrowed to the extreme value, the downward trend of North net inflow continued for about one month. Historically, the moving average of northward daily inflow turned into a substantial and sustained net inflow one month after the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed to the extreme value. According to the current situation, the interest rate limit spread in the late period of 2Y and 10Y yield inversion of US bonds last week expanded again. As of April 14, the interest rate limit spread had risen to 36bp. After the interest rate difference inversion between China and the United States, the interest rate difference between China and the United States on 10Y yield to maturity expanded to - 6.4 percentage points on April 14. It is expected that the negative impact of narrowing the interest rate difference between China and the United States on northward inflow will last at least until early May.
The two financing funds continued the trend of net outflow. The total net outflow of the two financing funds from 4/4-4/15 was 29.559 billion yuan, of which the net outflow from 4/4-4/8 was 4.879 billion yuan, and the net outflow from 4/11-4/15 was 24.680 billion yuan. The outflow scale increased by 405.84% month on month. In terms of industry structure, the inflow of the two financial sectors has shifted from real estate and consumption to resource products, and the net outflow is from growth sectors such as computers and electronics. 4 / 4 - 4 / 8 into real estate (740 million yuan), consumer services (463 million yuan), construction (300 million yuan); Out of 20 industries, the largest ones are banks (- 1.685 billion yuan), Dianxin (- 882 million yuan) and computers (- 795 million yuan). From April 11 to April 15, it flowed into petroleum and Petrochemical (1.264 billion yuan), steel (203 million yuan) and coal (108 million yuan); Out of 25 industries, the largest ones are computers (- 3.166 billion yuan), medicine (- 2.784 billion yuan) and electronics (- 2.671 billion yuan). In terms of trend, the inflow of the two financial sectors has shifted from real estate and consumption to resource goods, and the net outflow of the industry continues to be concentrated in the growth sector.
Equity ETFs continued to maintain a net inflow trend. During the period from April 4 to April 8, the net inflow was RMB 3.045 billion, and the inflow from April 11 to April 15 was RMB 18.590 billion, a significant increase of 510.51% month on month. In terms of structure, ETF funds prefer financial, real estate and cyclical industries from April 4 to April 15.
There are great differences in funds. Liangrong, BEIXIANG and ETF prefer resource, large finance and manufacturing cycle sectors respectively. According to the statistics of the overall preference of various funds from April 4 to April 15, the two financial sectors shifted from preference for real estate and consumer goods (consumer services, commercial retail) to resource goods (petroleum, petrochemical, steel and coal), and continued to flow out of the growth (computer and Electronics) and pharmaceutical sectors. Northward funds prefer large financial sectors such as banking and real estate, mainly flowing out of the pharmaceutical, transportation and automobile industries. ETF prefers cyclical industries. Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the growth rate of high-end manufacturing and cycle is the largest in this cycle.
Investment strategy: macroeconomic fluctuations exceeded expectations, epidemic development exceeded expectations, and policy changes exceeded expectations.
