Social finance reached a new high in the first quarter. What are the structural characteristics, capital flows and economic effects? For reference.
Characteristics of financing structure in the first quarter? The issuance of government bonds is ahead, the enterprise side structure needs to be improved, the demand of residents is weak, the social finance reached a new high in the first quarter, and government bonds and RMB loans are the main contributions. In the first quarter, new social finance reached 12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, a new high. Among the sub items, government bonds increased by 921.5 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing 53% of the year-on-year increment of new social finance. The year-on-year increment of RMB loans and corporate bonds ranked second, with 429.2 billion yuan and 402 billion yuan respectively, jointly driving the growth rate of social finance stock to stabilize and rebound to 10.6% compared with the end of last year. In terms of structure, the issuance of government bonds is ahead of schedule, corporate loans have reached a new high, the structure needs to be improved, and residents' long and short loans have weakened one after another. Government bond financing in the first quarter was 1.58 trillion yuan, much higher than 0.66 trillion yuan in the same period in 2021, mainly due to the advance of special bond issuance. Among the loan items, enterprise loans in the first quarter were nearly 7 trillion yuan, mainly due to short-term loans and bill financing impulse, while medium and long-term loans decreased by about 520 billion yuan year-on-year; Residential loans dropped significantly, medium and long-term loans and short-term loans decreased year-on-year, or related to factors such as house purchase behavior and weakening consumer activities.
What is the main direction of "money" in the first quarter? The financing of infrastructure chain is relatively concentrated. The financing of some previously weak industries has improved, and the bond financing is inclined to the infrastructure chain. The support of special bonds to social undertakings is also increasing, and the financing of real estate, commerce and trade in credit bonds has improved. The proportion of special new bonds invested in infrastructure increased from 38% in January to 54% in February, maintained a high of 53% in March, and the proportion invested in social undertakings increased month by month, reaching 20.6% in March. Among the credit bonds, the financing of infrastructure chain such as building decoration, transportation and public utilities ranks first, with a total of more than 560 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 55%; Credit debt financing in real estate, commerce and trade, steel and other industries has significantly warmed up, while the financing in the first quarter of 2021 was negative. Among the loan sub industries, the demand for infrastructure increased more than seasonally in the first quarter, and the demand for manufacturing loans continued to improve. In the first quarter, the demand index of manufacturing and infrastructure loans rebounded, especially the infrastructure increased by 6.5 percentage points month on month, higher than 4.1 percentage points in the same period in recent three years. In the stock growth, although the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in infrastructure and manufacturing in the first quarter was lower than that at the end of 2021, it remained at a high level in recent years, 13.2% and 29.5% respectively.
Financing characteristics, economic effects? While providing financial support for steady growth, we will guide industrial transformation and provide supporting support for relevant projects in infrastructure and other fields under the overweight of steady growth. Under the new downward pressure, the demand for steady growth has further heated up and the policy bottom has been continuously consolidated. Advance the issuance of local bonds and tilt credit bond financing to infrastructure and other fields to provide financial support for steady growth. With the support of funds, infrastructure, industrial and other projects represented by major projects have accelerated the commencement and construction. For example, in the first two months, our statistics of nearly 4000 special debt projects show that the proportion of new projects is 38.4%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points over the end of last year. While strengthening infrastructure support, we should pay attention to industrial guidance, taking into account short-term demand hedging and medium and long-term industrial transformation and upgrading. Among the special bonds invested in infrastructure construction in the first quarter, the proportion supporting the construction of Municipal Industrial Park was the highest, 33.5%. In terms of the types of industrial parks, smart high-tech, new materials and green transformation are the key support areas of special bonds, and the relevant infrastructure supporting investment accounts for more than 70%, among which smart high-tech accounts for the top 22.4%. Reiterated view: steady growth has shifted from monetary easing and increased related financing in the first step to the improvement of physical demand in the second step. With the gradual decline of the impact of the epidemic and the appearance of the effect of stable growth, there is no need to be too pessimistic because the "economic bottom" is imminent.
Risk tip: the policy effect is not as expected.
