Abstract
In the first quarter of this year, the real GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting the overall stable start of the national economy, but it deviated from the public's Micro feeling under the impact of the epidemic. What is the current economic situation? What are the risks to the economy? How to deal with it?
1. In the first quarter, the economy grew by 4.8% in the complex internal and external environment, which is very difficult, but it is mainly the foundation laid from January to February. The main economic indicators such as PMI, social finance, production, real estate investment and consumption fell in March. The downward pressure on the real economy is intertwined with the expected downturn. Only the development of infrastructure is the main bright spot, and the situation is still very grim. In terms of structure, the impact of the epidemic on the service industry is the most obvious. In March, the service industry decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the catering revenue decreased by 16.4% year-on-year. Automobile production fell sharply due to the insufficient supply of the industrial chain; The utilization rate of industrial capacity has dropped significantly to the low point since the third quarter of 2020. From the perspective of growth momentum, real estate investment and consumption still have a significant drag on the economy. The consumption related to the real estate chain has been transferred into the downturn of furniture and decoration, and the downward trend has not stopped.
2. There are three main reasons for the deviation between macro data and micro feelings: first, there is structural differentiation in the economy, which forms hedging after macro aggregation. Enterprises below Designated Size and low - and middle-income groups have weak anti risk ability, but they have a large number and feel more strongly; However, enterprises above Designated Size and middle and high-income groups have relatively strong anti risk ability, resulting in the overall data being better than most people feel. Second, there is a lag in the statistical data, which is misplaced with the current micro feeling. The economic downturn felt by the public mainly occurred from late March to April, while the current data are published in March, and the impact of the epidemic has not been fully revealed. Third, the statistical caliber and statistical methods lead to underestimated data.
3. The impact of the epidemic has not been fully revealed in the March data, and the economy may face greater downward pressure in the second quarter. The first and second quarters have a higher base. GDP in the second quarter of 2021 increased by an average of 5.5% in two years, 0.6 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. Second, the impact of the epidemic may be concentrated in April or even the second quarter. If the epidemic rebounds and strict prevention and control continues, industrial production and exports will be more impacted. Third, the current economy faces four major risks outside China: the rebound of the epidemic, the decline of real estate, imported inflation and the tightening of monetary policies in Europe and the United States. The contraction of demand and the impact of supply will aggravate the weakening of expectations, the low consumption and investment willingness of residents and enterprises, and the lack of market confidence, which will lead to further contraction of demand and form a vicious circle.
4. The economic performance in the second quarter depends on the duration of the epidemic and the strength and effect of the steady growth policy. If the GDP growth rate rises to 5.0% in the second quarter and remains at 5.5% in the second half of the year, the annual economic growth rate will be only 5.2%, lower than the target of about 5.5%. Therefore, the task of economic work in the second quarter and the second half of the year is very heavy. It is necessary to achieve effective epidemic prevention and control as soon as possible and increase the policy of stabilizing growth.
5. Pay attention to the three main bodies impacted by the epidemic, low and middle-income people, small and micro enterprises and grass-roots governments. The top priority is to coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and ensure the supply of industrial chains in key areas, smooth logistics and avoid new social problems caused by economic shutdown. Under the impact of the epidemic, the policy focus in the short term will be to increase the relief of micro entities and find out the bottom of employment. It is worth noting that there is a "one size fits all" phenomenon in strengthening epidemic prevention and control in some areas, which has a negative impact on spring ploughing, freight logistics and people's life. At present, the policy has been corrected. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the revenue growth rate of some local governments decreased, but at the same time, the expenditure on epidemic prevention and relief increased, the reduction of revenue and expenditure increased the financial pressure at the grass-roots level, and it is particularly necessary for the central government to increase the transfer payment to local governments. In the future, policies will still focus on anti epidemic relief and boosting the economy.
Risk tips: the rebound of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the steady growth policy exceeded expectations, and the overseas impact exceeded expectations
