Production continues to be under pressure
In the first two weeks of April, production continued to be under pressure. Although the crude steel output decreased by 7.3% year-on-year and the decline narrowed, the operating rate of automobile tires decreased by 18.86% year-on-year, and the decline expanded. The load rate of PTA industrial chain decreased by 6.97%.
The epidemic continues to curb demand
In the first two weeks of April, the epidemic continued to curb demand, and the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 50.03% year-on-year, expanding the decline; The wholesale sales of car manufacturers of the association decreased by 39.5% year-on-year, and the retail sales of cars decreased by 42%, both of which expanded; The average daily passenger volume of Jiucheng subway decreased by 52.58% year-on-year, and the decline was also expanded. Overall, consumption growth is expected to continue to decline in April.
In the first two weeks of April, the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate picked up.
The growth rate of consumer prices rose
In the first two weeks of April, food prices rose by 2.71% month on month, down 3.92% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, the growth rate of non food prices increased, the year-on-year growth rate of high-frequency consumer prices increased by 1 percentage point, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI may continue to rise.
In the first two weeks of April, the year-on-year growth rate of high-frequency production prices decreased slightly, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may continue the downward trend since November 2021.
Improvement of monetary conditions
In the first two weeks of April, dr007 fell to 1.91%, monetary conditions improved, and the upward momentum of M2 growth increased. The year-on-year interest margin of dr007 also decreased, and the monetary pulse kinetic energy, the leading indicator of M2 growth, increased. The bill interest margin rises, and the growth rate of social finance has an upward momentum. The year-on-year decrease of bill interest margin also means that the credit pulse is strengthened again.
The overall stability of RMB exchange rate
Affected by the epidemic, China is at a disadvantage compared with the U.S. economic accident index. At the same time, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has also narrowed, and the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation has increased slightly, but it is stable on the whole.
Risk tips: the epidemic exceeded expectations and geopolitics exceeded expectations
