This week (from April 11 to April 15, 2022, the same below) Hang Seng Index - 1.62%. This week, the Dow Jones industrial average was - 0.78%; S & P 500 index - 2.13%; NASDAQ - 2.63%.
At the beginning of this week, the State Press and Publication Administration approved the first batch of game edition numbers (45 in total) since July last year. We think it has obvious positive significance for the industry policy expectation and basic mask. We expect that after the issuance of China's game edition numbers returns to normalization, the supply elasticity of new games in the industry will be significantly improved. We expect that the game supply will show a trend of high-quality products in the future. We are more optimistic about the development and operation capacity of head manufacturers in the medium and long term, and pay attention to 2022 pipeline to release elasticity in the short term. The recent local epidemic and travel control policies are expected to promote the growth of online game market duration and payment to a certain extent, and the recovery of new game supply is expected to further promote the growth of users and the improvement of payment willingness. The valuation of the game sector is at a low level, benefiting from the "home dividend" in the short term. After the issuance and restoration of the Chinese version number, the fundamentals are expected to be revised. The superimposed game goes to sea to maintain high growth, and the fundamentals and valuation are expected to be repaired.
The version number and listed companies involved are as follows: G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ( G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) . SH): end game tower hunter and box fission Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) ( Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) . SZ): Chronicles of the Three Kingdoms: Pocket battle Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ( Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) . SZ): Dream voyage Shenzhen Zqgame Co.Ltd(300052) ( Shenzhen Zqgame Co.Ltd(300052) . SZ): switch "casting craftsman"; Heart company (2400. HK): Party star; Chuang Meng Tiandi (1119. HK): beware of fire and candle; Friendship time (6820.hk): Heritage No. 0.
China's platform economic governance strengthens the supervision of webcast, short video and other fields. This week, the State Administration of radio, film and television announced that it would strengthen the management of game live broadcast on the online audio-visual program platform. All kinds of online audio-visual programs should not broadcast online games without the approval of the competent department. Strengthening the management of game live broadcast content is expected to have an impact on the game live broadcast industry and have a limited impact on the head game manufacturers. This week, the online information office announced that it would jointly carry out the special action of "Qinglang · rectifying the chaos in the field of webcast and short video" with the State Administration of Taxation and the Municipal Administration of supervision, including rectifying vulgar and illegal contents, strengthening account management and reward management, rectifying the problems of false publicity, tax evasion and malicious marketing. Following the overseas hfcaa, another 12 Chinese concept stocks were included in the provisional list this week, and the microblog was transferred to the official list. At present, there are 17 Companies in the tentative list. Continue to pay attention to the communication progress and official statements of China US regulators, the progress of the US accelerated bill, and the strategic return trend of China concept shares to Hong Kong.
Generally speaking, the performance period of the newspaper industry in the first quarter of 2022 is coming. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the mild promotion trend for the fundamentals of the game under the comprehensive influence of "home bonus", the resumption of edition number issuance and the slowdown of macro consumption, and pay attention to the phased impact of the epidemic situation in some areas on the local life (supply), e-commerce (logistics) and advertising (the demand of advertisers in some industries), It is not excluded that the market expectation of 22h1 performance of some companies may still be adjusted. On the other hand, we continue to pay attention to the recovery of offline work resumption progress and consumption scene after the local epidemic is alleviated, as well as the potential recovery trend of the investment budget transmitted to online advertising. According to the marginal recovery rhythm / elasticity, we expect local life e-commerce advertising. Suggestions: 1) the game industry is improving, with strong short-term fundamental toughness, and pay attention to Netease and Tencent; 2) After the local epidemic situation is alleviated, local life and e-commerce may be expected to recover quickly. Pay attention to meituan, jd.com, pinduoduo and Alibaba; 3) online advertising industry is waiting for demand improvement, focusing on structural share growth platforms, such as Kwai Fu and beep. We believe that overseas markets are concerned about this week: 1) the real interest rate in the United States is close to becoming positive, and from the perspective of the global supply chain, the sudden epidemic still poses pressure on the production of exporting countries, so the global inflationary pressure may not be relieved in the short term under the supply. 2) The first quarterly report of overseas technology giants will be released one week later. We believe that from the perspective of consumer credit and the recovery speed of small and medium-sized enterprises, the overall growth rate of e-commerce may be better than that of advertising, but consumer electronics is still under obvious inflationary pressure. We suggest that overseas technology giants pay primary attention to Amazon and Microsoft.
Risk tips: 1. Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; 2. Sino US trade friction; 3. The risk of tightening Internet supervision; 4. The tightening of liquidity environment exceeded expectations; 5. Competition in overseas markets has intensified.
