Key investment points:
Event: according to the data released by the Bureau of statistics, China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year and is expected to increase by 4.7%. China's industrial added value in March increased by 5% year-on-year, expected to increase by 4.5%, and the previous value increased by 12.8%. From January to March, urban fixed asset investment increased by 9.3% year-on-year, expected to increase by 8.5%, and the previous value increased by 12.2%. In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by - 3.5% year-on-year, expected to increase by - 1.6%, and the previous value increased by 6.7%.
The year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter was better than market expectations, and industrial production slowed down in March. In the first quarter, China's GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year and is expected to increase by 4.7%. The economy started smoothly on the whole. Affected by the shutdown of the epidemic, the growth rate of industrial production slowed down in March. China's industrial added value increased by 5% year-on-year in March, down 2.5 percentage points from January to February. In terms of three categories, under the promotion of the policy of "ensuring supply and stabilizing price", the supply of energy and raw materials market continued to increase. The mining industry recorded a year-on-year growth of 12.2%, and the power and heat production and supply industry recorded a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, also maintaining rapid growth. With the repeated superposition of the epidemic and the obstruction of transportation and logistics, the manufacturing industry recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. By industry, the added value of 37 of the 41 major industries in March maintained year-on-year growth. Among them, under the policy of ensuring supply and price of coal, the coal mining and washing industry increased by 16.7%. At the peak of the epidemic in March, the demand for medical materials was expanded, and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 10.1% year-on-year in March. Affected by geopolitical factors, the prices of crude oil, raw coal and natural gas remained high. In March, the industrial added value of coal mining and washing industry and oil and natural gas mining industry increased by 16.7% and 5.7% respectively year-on-year, and the industry boom was high.
From January to March, fixed asset investment fell, and infrastructure investment maintained a high boom. From January to March, the year-on-year growth rate of urban fixed asset investment was 9.3%, which was 2.9 percentage points lower than that from January to February, but still higher than the market expectation. In terms of sub areas, investment in infrastructure, manufacturing and real estate development increased by 10.48%, 15.6% and 0.7% respectively year-on-year. On the investment side, the focus of the government's new special bonds was ahead, the fiscal policy continued to work, and the physical workload accelerated. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment from January to march was 1.87 percentage points higher than that from January to February. In the first quarter, the monthly investment in real estate development increased by 0.7% year-on-year, down 3 percentage points from the previous value. Although the real estate financing policies in some cities have been relaxed and the mortgage interest rate has been reduced, the investment performance of real estate investment has been depressed due to limited funds and weak sales. With the continuous support of policies, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to March recorded 15.6%. Although it was 5.3 percentage points lower than that from January to February, it still maintained a high growth rate.
In March, the year-on-year growth rate of consumption turned negative, and the consumption boom was weak. The growth rate of total retail consumption of social goods fell by - 3.2% year-on-year, with a recovery of - 3.2% year-on-year. In terms of consumption types, affected by the epidemic, residents' consumption was restrained, and the revenue of commodity retail and catering decreased by 2.1% and 16.4% respectively year-on-year. In terms of commodity categories, in addition to the year-on-year growth of grain, oil and food necessities, they generally showed a downward trend, especially clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles and gold, silver and jewelry, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% and 17.9% respectively. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, relevant consumer goods were shut down and stopped production, superimposed with factors such as traffic and logistics obstruction. For example, automobiles, furniture, household appliances and audio equipment recorded - 7.5%, - 8.8% and - 4.3% year-on-year respectively
Overall, the economic environment weakened in March, the investment in infrastructure and manufacturing performed well, and the consumption data turned negative. The economic environment outside China is becoming increasingly complex. The epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the economic repair. In March, the economic momentum weakened, but the overall performance is better than the market expectation, but the structure needs to be improved urgently. The investment in infrastructure and manufacturing industry performed well, while the consumption fell sharply, indicating weak demand. Looking forward to April, on the consumer side, the aftermath of the epidemic is still in progress, or lead to the resumption of pressure on consumption. On the investment side, the fiscal policy continues to work, local governments accelerate the formation of physical workload, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to improve. In terms of manufacturing industry, the policy strongly supports the high-quality development of manufacturing industry, and the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a high growth. On the real estate side, with the moderate liberalization of purchase and sale restrictions in many places, the reduction of the threshold for the use of provident fund and the acceleration of the approval of house purchase loans, the housing demand in some cities is released, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize, and the growth rate of real estate investment is expected to stabilize.
Risk tip: China's epidemic has repeatedly hindered economic development and further increased the downward pressure on the economy; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, driving the high price of bulk commodities, increasing the cost pressure of enterprises, and the profits of industrial manufacturing were continuously compressed.
