The national financial macro United Nations digital future laboratory launched a follow-up report on the resumption of work after the epidemic. The first phase focused on the interpretation of the epidemic situation, prevention and control measures and high-frequency tracking resumption of work and production. Multidimensional information shows that the interference of the epidemic began to weaken gradually.
The inflection point of the epidemic may have appeared. All localities will speed up the clearing of social aspects, ensure smooth communication, resume work and production in an orderly manner, and the peak of the number of new covid-19 pneumonia infections in a single day may have passed, and the epidemic in most areas may be gradually alleviated. This week (April 10-16), the number of new covid-19 pneumonia infections in China reached 158000, a month on month increase of 6.4% over the previous week; However, the number of new infections in a single day fell from 29000 at the peak on April 13 to 25000 on average from April 14 to 16. Compared with the previous week, the number of new infections in 21 provinces and cities such as Beijing, Sichuan and Jilin fell to varying degrees this week, while the number of new infections in Shanghai, Hubei and Guangxi increased.
Adhering to the “dynamic clearing”, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council requires that infected persons be transported and isolated as far as possible; Some regions strengthened nucleic acid detection and social control. On April 12, the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council stressed that under the premise of “dynamic clearing”, people with mild and asymptomatic infections should be concentrated in isolation points for isolation and observation as far as possible, and vaccination for the elderly should be accelerated. Shanghai, which has a large number of infected people, emphasizes resolutely and decisively promoting the “four should and four do”; Some areas where the number of infections has increased have begun to strengthen nucleic acid testing and social control.
Ensuring smooth traffic and resumption of work and production are advancing in an orderly manner. On April 10, the State Council issued a document stressing that all localities shall not arbitrarily restrict the passage of vehicles and drivers, and neighboring provinces in areas with serious epidemic situation should give support to logistics transfer stations. On April 15, 249 toll stations were closed on expressways in provinces and cities across the country, a decrease of 429 or 63.3% compared with the number of toll stations closed on April 10. In addition, Jilin and Shanghai, which are greatly affected by the current round of epidemic, have recently issued policy guidelines for resumption of work and production, requiring enterprises to actively promote resumption of work and production on the basis of doing a good job in epidemic prevention.
The epidemic disturbance or gradually weakened, road logistics and port transportation improved to varying degrees, and consumption resumed differentiation
Freight and truck logistics indicators have improved, or point to the repeated weakening of the epidemic, and the repair of activities such as supply chain and infrastructure investment. From April 11 to 14, the national vehicle freight flow index rebounded for three consecutive days. Most provinces and cities rebounded, and only seven provinces and cities such as Yunnan, Shandong and Hubei decreased to varying degrees. According to the data of Guojin digital future laboratory, it mainly reflects the national truck logistics intensity of building materials transportation activities. The value of this week (April 10-16) is 11.96, slightly higher than 11.78 of the previous week, which may point to the repair of infrastructure activities. The navigation of ships in the Yangtze River Delta has been gradually improved, or the interference of the epidemic situation on import and export activities has been weakened. According to the data of Guojin digital future laboratory, the average speed of ships in the Yangtze River Delta began to rise gradually on April 14 after a significant decline in the first half of April. The average speed reached 4.87 knots on April 17, with a low rise of nearly 86%. Among them, the speed of bulk ships and container ships with the highest number increased by 65% and 156% respectively. The impact of changes in ship navigation or pointing to the epidemic on import and export was greater in the first half of April and gradually weakened in the second half of April.
However, the impact of the epidemic on urban life is still emerging. The recovery of urban travel is slowing down, the differentiation of consumption is restored, and the recovery of second and third tier cities is relatively good. According to the data of Guojin digital future laboratory, the travel recovery intensity of different cities has fallen to varying degrees recently, of which the decline range of first and second tier cities is relatively large, or it points to the continued downturn of passenger flow in the business district. At the same time, the recovery of catering in different cities has slowed down, and the decline in the recovery intensity of catering in first tier cities is significantly greater than that in second and third tier cities; Similarly, the recovery of takeout in first tier cities also slowed down, but the rest of the cities continued to pick up.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeds expectations, and there are errors or omissions in data statistics.
