I. The recent epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jilin has led to the tightening of national epidemic prevention policies, and the freight logistics has been greatly affected by the epidemic situation. Last week, the national vehicle freight flow index decreased by 28.7% year-on-year. Last week, the vehicle cargo flow index in Shanghai and Jilin decreased by about 85% year-on-year, a very large decline. In addition, the spillover effect of the epidemic in Shanghai and Jilin has significantly tightened the epidemic prevention policies of other provinces and cities, and significantly increased the national highway control, which has also led to the decline of vehicle freight flow in various provinces and cities. Last week, the vehicle freight flow index of Jiangsu, Guangdong and Zhejiang decreased by 43.3%, 28.6% and 18.3% respectively year-on-year. Nationwide, last week, the vehicle freight flow index decreased by 28.7% year-on-year, with a large decline.
2. Last week, the State Council and the Ministry of communications launched a series of policies to ensure smooth logistics. The national vehicle freight flow index rebounded by 18.0% from the low point, and the policy has achieved initial results. On April 7, the Ministry of transport held a meeting on the coordination mechanism of logistics support to study and deploy the work of ensuring the smooth transportation of freight logistics. On April 11, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council issued a notice on ensuring the smooth operation of freight logistics, and launched the working mechanism of ensuring the smooth operation of three-level dispatching of ministries, provinces and stations, linkage of Road police and regional coordination to ensure the smooth operation of traffic trunk lines. On April 14, the Ministry of transport promoted the establishment of a unified and standardized pass system to ensure the transportation of key materials in epidemic related areas. The introduction of these policies has achieved initial results. As of April 14, the national vehicle freight flow index has rebounded by 18.0% compared with the low point on April 6.
III. looking ahead, with the further implementation of the policy of ensuring smooth logistics and the promotion of the resumption of work and production of key enterprises, China's freight traffic is expected to further recover in the next few weeks, but it may take about a month to fully recover. At present, the freight logistics is still not smooth. With the further implementation of the logistics policy, unnecessary traffic control is expected to be gradually lifted, which is conducive to the repair of freight flow. While ensuring smooth logistics, the Ministry of industry and information technology is also promoting the stable production and resumption of production of key industrial enterprises to ensure the smooth operation of the industrial chain and supply chain. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Shanghai government will concentrate resources and give priority to ensuring the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine. This is also conducive to the recovery of China's freight traffic and economy in the coming weeks. At present, the number of new cases in Jilin Province has begun to decrease gradually, but the number of new cases in Shanghai is still at a high level, and the number of asymptomatic infections in other parts of the mainland is also at a high level. It may take about a month for the national epidemic to subside basically. Before the epidemic basically subsides, the freight flow will inevitably be restrained by the epidemic.
Risk tip: China's epidemic situation has worsened and overseas geopolitical uncertainty has increased