In March, the marginal growth rate of industrial added value fell, the downstream industrial production was significantly dragged down by the epidemic, and the middle and upstream industrial production continued to recover. The industrial added value in March was + 5.0% year-on-year (the previous value was + 12.8%, and the average growth rate in the same period in 2021 was + 6.42%). By industry category, the performance of energy mining industry is still good; The production of raw material processing industry in the middle and upper reaches continued to recover; The consumer goods industry has been affected by the outbreak of the epidemic in China, and the cumulative growth margin of industrial added value has declined, but the overall stability; Industrial products manufacturing production was also dragged down.
In March, the social zero growth rate decreased significantly, and scene consumption and non daily necessities were significantly impacted by the epidemic. The cumulative growth rate of social zero in March was + 3.3% (the former value was 6.7%), the growth rate of the current month was - 3.5% (the former value was 6.7%), and the actual growth rate of the current month was - 6.0% (the former value was 4.9%). Since 2016, it was only better than that from February to April 2020, which was mainly affected by the large-scale outbreak of the epidemic. From the perspective of consumption types, commodities and catering have been greatly impacted, but catering has been more impacted. From the perspective of commodity categories, the consumption growth rate of grain and oil, food, beverages, Chinese and Western medicines and other necessities of life continued to recover, but cosmetics and daily necessities were greatly impacted by the epidemic, but these two kinds of epidemic situations rebounded rapidly after being controlled. Among the optional consumption, clothing, shoes and hats, gold, silver and jewelry are greatly affected by the epidemic. The consumption related to the real estate chain, such as household appliances and furniture, itself is in the decline channel. Superimposed on the impact of the epidemic and the expansion of the decline in real estate sales in March, the performance was poor in March.
The sluggish real estate sales and controlled sources of funds are about the growth rate of real estate investment. In March 2022, the cumulative growth rate of investment in real estate development was 0.7% (the previous value was 3.7%), and the housing construction area fell to 1.0% (the previous value was 1.8%). Since this year, although many real estate markets have liberalized purchase and sales restrictions, lowered the threshold for the use of provident fund, and accelerated the approval of house purchase loans, on the whole, the downward trend of real estate sales has not been effectively curbed. Under the general tone of "no speculation in housing", the real estate market is expected to show no obvious signs of improvement. In March, the cumulative sources of funds for real estate development were - 19.6% (the previous value was - 17.7%), a record low.
The effect of capital construction countercyclical adjustment and advance force continues to appear. In March, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment was 8.5% (the previous value was 8.1%), which was the only sub item of the three major investments that continued to recover. On the one hand, according to the layout of the national standing committee meeting on January 10 this year, under the tone of "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment", the key areas and major projects of the 14th five year plan have been promoted rapidly. On the other hand, there were abundant sources of infrastructure funds in the first quarter. First, the 1.2 trillion yuan of local government special bond funds issued in the fourth quarter of 2021 gradually fell to specific projects. Second, the issuance of special bonds this year is ahead. On March 29, the national Standing Committee required that the amount of special bonds issued in advance last year should be completed by the end of May and the amount issued this year should be completed by the end of September. By April 18, 2022, 1.28 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued in the first quarter, accounting for 35% of the annual quota. The unused amount of special bonds in the fourth quarter of last year plus the newly issued amount in the first quarter is an important support for the recovery of infrastructure in the first quarter. On the whole, this year's infrastructure tone still focuses on expanding effective investment, and special bonds focus on giving full play to efficiency. Therefore, this year's infrastructure has a clear bottom effect, Limited strong stimulus, and it is difficult for the annual growth rate to continue to rise.
The investment margin of manufacturing industry declined, but the average growth rate in three years was relatively stable. In March, the cumulative growth rate of manufacturing industry was 15.6% (the previous value was 20.9%), and the three-year average growth rate was 4.1% (the previous value was 4.6%). The steady growth rate of manufacturing investment is related to the low base caused by the negative growth of manufacturing investment in the first quarter of 2021, the recovery of profits of industrial enterprises since 2021, and the promotion of monetary finance. The growth rate of medium and long-term industrial loan balance in the first quarter still increased significantly by 20.7%.
In April, the demand side may continue to differentiate and the production is stable. From the demand side, the demand side in March was mainly affected by the epidemic, real estate sales and shrinking investment. The demand data in April may continue to fall. First, the epidemic control was gradually lifted in late April, which is conducive to the recovery of the consumer side. However, from the situation at the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, the consumption after the epidemic can not be fully replenished, and the recovery speed is very slow. Therefore, the year-on-year probability of social zero in April will decline. Second, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry may decline steadily. Factors supporting the recovery of manufacturing investment in the first quarter, such as the low base and the variable profit growth of industrial enterprises, have turned negative from January to February. Third, the real estate market has not observed an obvious rebound inflection point, but the policy bottom is gradually emerging, and real estate sales may take the lead in stabilizing. On April 18, the central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued 23 measures to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development. They proposed to implement policies based on the city, reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements for commercial individual housing loans, support the reasonable financing needs of real estate development enterprises and construction enterprises, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. From the supply side, since the production side was better than the demand side in March, mainly due to the continuous recovery of raw material processing industry in the middle and upper reaches and the record low production and marketing rate of industrial enterprises, if the demand recovery in April is not strong enough, the production side may fall back. On the other hand, the current price transmission is gradually smooth, which is conducive to the production recovery of middle and lower reaches enterprises. Therefore, the production side may remain stable in April.
In March, the economic data fell less than expected, and the centralized release of policies suppressed market sentiment. The economic data in April may still be lowered, but with the gradual lifting of epidemic control and the spontaneous repair of post epidemic economy and the promotion of policies, the marginal improvement is expected. The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.8%, higher than the policy target. On the one hand, it dragged down the recovery of the demand side, on the other hand, it also put forward higher demand for the steady growth policy. On the whole, the implementation of RRR reduction, the difficulty of monetary policy scheduling and the centralized release of stable growth policies need to pay attention to the risk of yield increase in the short term. However, in the second quarter, the inflection point of real estate investment is difficult to show, the high unemployment rate hurts demand, and the macro environment is still conducive to the low operation of interest rates.
