Reiterate that the market is at the bottom, and the profit expectation affects the reversal opportunity. Recently, the market is still at the bottom under the influence of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. ERP indicators show that the market is at the bottom. At present, the policy bottom has been determined. Since the resumption of trading in 2010, it can be found that the market bottom basically coincides with the profit bottom. This week’s large consumption has gradually reflected the logic of buying post epidemic repair on the disk. However, there are still differences in the expectation of profit bottom, which affects the timing of market bottom reversal. If the epidemic continues to ferment, it may be postponed to Q3.
Large consumption is expected to be revised down throughout the year, reversing the industry’s top growth rate. Taking the overall profit forecast of the seller’s analysts as the reference for the medium and long-term market expectation, the profit expectation of 21 / 22 has been revised down by the same range after the disclosure of the 21st Annual Report, and the annual expected performance growth rate of 22-year large consumption is about 25.5%. Looking at the primary industry, the domestic demand market is still under pressure, and only beauty care and food and beverage have slightly increased their expected performance in 22 years. The expected performance growth of social services (epidemic recovery) and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pig cycle) sectors that emphasize reverse logic is higher.
Focus on the opportunities of subdivided tracks, taking into account prosperity and safety. From the perspective of large consumption secondary industries, the differentiation of subdivided tracks is significant. Epidemic repair and pig cycle are still the main line, and the expected growth rate of film and television cinemas, hotel catering, tourism and scenic spots, feed and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing is ahead. However, other subdivided industries such as home furnishing, medical treatment and beauty also have higher expected growth rate. As the impact of the epidemic on the demand side is still fermenting and the price of raw materials on the cost side is high, the current market expectation may not have fully accrued the impact of relevant factors. Considering safety, we can give priority to selecting stable cosmetics, food and Baijiu sectors with 22 years of expected growth and growth.
Market Review
Rise and fall: the primary industry of large consumption rose and fell last week, and the logic of value stocks and epidemic repair was strong. Food and beverage (+ 4.4%), commercial retail (+ 3.1%) and beauty care (+ 1.6%) were among the top gainers.
Turnover: the overall average daily turnover of large consumer industries was 160.18 billion yuan, up 9.5% on a weekly basis, accounting for 17.7% of the overall daily turnover of a shares.
Capital flow
A-share liquidity tracking: net capital outflow expanded. Equity financing – 30.36 billion yuan; Shareholder reduction of – 2.51 billion yuan; New Development Fund + 2.31 billion yuan; Financing fund – 16.32 billion yuan; The capital of land port link was -1.71 billion yuan.
Main capital flows: most industries are in the state of net outflow, and only food and beverage realize net inflow Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (food and beverage), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (food and beverage), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (food and beverage) ranked first in the net inflow of main funds.
Northward capital flow: the northward capital inflow industry is relatively concentrated, and the net capital inflow of household appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery ranks first Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (commercial retail), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (household appliances) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the north.
Southward capital flow: last week, most industries had a net outflow of southward capital, and only leisure services realized a net inflow. Tencent Holdings (media), meituan-w (social services) and Anta sports (textile and clothing) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the south
Transaction dynamics
Market sentiment: financing transactions accounted for 6.44% (6.62% last week); The seller’s recommendation index 204 remained high; The turnover rate of Shanghai stock market was 0.9% (0.9% last week), and that of Shenzhen stock market was 2.1% (2.3% last week).
Hot topics: Prefabricated food, food processing, beverage manufacturing, Baijiu, dairy industry.
Risk tips
Sample selection deviation, risk of continuous and repeated epidemic, risk of external impact and risk of market fluctuation.
