Main points:
Industry Week view: focus on the improvement of Q1 profit of pulp and paper system; In March, India's imports and exports of cultivated diamonds were bright
[paper sector]: focus on the improvement of Q1 profit of pulp and paper system. Recently, the paper-making enterprises have successively published the annual report and the performance of the first quarter report. According to the current annual report, the annual performance growth of pulp and paper enterprises is basically in line with the expectation, and the Q4 performance is under short-term pressure due to factors such as energy cost and low demand. Taking Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) as an example, the company's annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.39%; The net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 was 189 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 66.98%, mainly due to the high price of Q4 coal and the cost pressure. Judging from the first quarter forecast and market supply and demand situation released by some paper enterprises, the profits of 22q1 pulp and paper enterprises have improved month on month, mainly due to the improvement of the marginal supply and demand of the market, in which the high outlook of white card export continues, and the demand for cultural paper publishing is released one after another; At the same time, the high shock of upstream wood pulp supports the paper price. Paper enterprises have issued several rounds of price increase letters and actively implemented them, and the industry profit is expected to continue to repair. However, the epidemic has been repeated in many places recently. For example, in East and South China, affected by poor transportation and factory shutdown in the short term, the supply and demand in some areas are weak, the inventory of paper enterprises has increased slightly, and the cost side pressure of some paper enterprises may continue.
[e-cigarette]: the mandatory national standard is officially issued, the detailed rules are issued, and the transition period is clear. On April 12, the national standard of e-cigarette was officially issued and will take effect on October 1. The content is consistent with the second exposure draft; On April 13, the regulatory authorities issued a clear transition period to September 30, during which manufacturers can still produce flavored cigarettes; On April 15, five detailed rules for handling production license, wholesale and retail license, product technical review and QR code traceability were issued at the same time. Leading enterprises are expected to take the lead in obtaining production licenses and benefiting from them.
[jewelry diamond]: the trend of cultivating diamond continues to be verified, and the demand for jewelry wedding is delayed due to the epidemic. Cultivation drill: in March, India's cultivation drill import reached a new level and continued to verify the industrial trend. In March, India's import data of cultivated diamonds reached a new level and continued to verify the industrial trend and demand boom. In March, India's imports of cultivated drill were US $203 million, with a year-on-year / month on month increase of 157.0% / 31.0%, and the category penetration rate of import was 9.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1pcts. The import volume exceeded US $200 million again after exceeding US $150 million in January. Since December 2021, the import volume of India's cultivation drill has been continuously higher than the export volume, expanding month on month, which continues to verify our previous judgment that the expansion of India's CVD production has not affected the supply of cultivation drill. At present, the supply of the industry is insufficient, and the growth rate is still restricted by China's capacity expansion. In March 22, the gap reached US $66 million. Natural diamond market price fluctuation + high inflation may prompt producers to dabble in cultivated diamonds. China's production capacity is expected to continue to increase in 2022. Gold jewelry: the repeated epidemic in March and April caused the delayed release of wedding demand for gold jewelry. The Russian Ukrainian crisis pushed the gold price higher in stages. According to wind data, the spot gold price in London rose by 7.9% in February and March. High inflation + low real interest rate support the gold price center to remain high, which is expected to rise to US $20 Yunnan Yuntou Ecology And Environment Technology Co.Ltd(002200) / ounce. Under the background of repeated epidemics and rising gold prices, brands' profits are limited by short-term gold price fluctuations through hedging, while long-term gold price fluctuations are upward, which is conducive to gold consumption. During the epidemic period, the upward fluctuation of gold price is easy to form, and the share price is ahead of the performance rise. In the medium and long term, it is expected that the consumption attribute of gold jewelry will be enhanced, and economic growth will support the increase of consumption.
[household sector]: the valuation has entered the safe range, and Baima has entered the value allocation range. The current overall sector valuation reflects the current situation and expectation of the completion of real estate and the decline in sales. However, in terms of the fundamentals of individual enterprises, the leading white horse has reflected the fundamental toughness in the past three years. In the same period, the growth rate of software and furniture customization enterprises is generally higher than that of the leading enterprises in the same period, and the growth rate of software and Furniture Customization is generally higher than that of the leading enterprises in the near term. The government work report of the two sessions mentioned the pillar and supporting role of real estate, and the potential policy catalysis is expected to boost the industry expectation. We believe that the current leading household white horse has entered the long-term allocation value range.
[textile manufacturing]: Although the demand picked up from January to February, the increase of clothing consumption by 4.8% was less than the zero growth of the whole society. The continuous spread of the epidemic in March had a negative impact on offline consumption. We believe that the textile manufacturing sector dominated by export manufacturing may have structural opportunities, and its overall prosperity is better than that of brand clothing dominated by domestic demand. Under the influence of the global epidemic, China's manufacturing risk control and supporting advantages of the industrial chain are prominent. The performance of OEM enterprises is stable and benefit from the transfer of orders under the foreign epidemic. Under the normalization of the epidemic, the release of production capacity is expected to accelerate.
[functional shoes and clothing]: sports shoes and clothing: from the performance in 2021, the expansion of leading channels of sports clothing is strong, the income and profit increase significantly, and there are opportunities for continuous improvement of concentration; Down jacket: the concentration of head brands has continued to improve, and the epidemic has had little impact on down jacket sales since March; Outdoor sports: steady overseas demand and broad growth space in China have driven the two-way improvement of export and domestic sales of corresponding products. The industrial and private brand business of China's top professional outdoor sports suppliers grew rapidly in 2021; Casual children's wear: under the trend of consumption upgrading, the concentration of children's wear and adult casual wear has increased, and the sales volume and price of children's wear have increased simultaneously.
Investment advice
The paper sector continues to be optimistic about [ Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) ], and the company has strong competitiveness α Property, the growth rate in the short and medium term is expected to significantly lead the industry, with the dual driving force of high profit growth and valuation repair. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) ]: the company has the capacity of multi paper types and flexible production and delivery, quickly respond to downstream demand fluctuations, stabilize costs and maintain stable profits; [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ]: the company is a leader in China's medium and high-end decorative base paper, and continues to improve its scale and market share under the trend of high-end and centralization of the industry. Bulk paper is optimistic about [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], cultural paper price increase and landing + large capacity of Guangxi base will bring performance improvement; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], the white card business accounts for the highest proportion, and is expected to fully benefit from this round of market under the favorable industry pattern and high export boom.
In the home furnishing sector, it is suggested to pay attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] with the continuous high growth of decoration income; 22 [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] of deepening the reform of management system; [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] with initial multi-channel layout results; The channel reform will be gradually realized to the performance, and new categories will be developed based on the original strong sofa channel and gradually increased [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ]; [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] focusing on the main business, strong development of independent brands and accelerating channel expansion; Continue to make efforts to create the second growth curve of mattresses, and [Minhua holdings] is in a strong upward channel in market share and performance.
It is suggested to cultivate diamond manufacturers [ Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) ], [ Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) ], [ North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) ]. It is suggested that the gold ornaments concerned have brand and product advantages in the high-line market and accelerate the expansion of stores in the low-line market [Chow Tai Fook]; And [ Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ] to accelerate the opening of stores after the provincial representative model was launched in 2021q3; Build the brand strength of Guochao fashion innovative design, and accelerate the development of [ Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) ] franchise stores at the channel end. The e-cigarette sector suggests paying attention to the production leader less affected in the transition period [smore international].
Risk tips
The epidemic repeatedly affects the demand, the price fluctuation of raw materials, the penetration of cultivation drill is less than expected, the competition in the upstream production link of cultivation drill is intensified, and the market acceptance of new technology of electronic cigarette leader is less than expected
