How to see the investment opportunities of consumer goods under the epidemic situation
Covid-19 epidemic is the biggest variable affecting current consumer goods investment:
With the expansion of China’s urban closure area, quantitative analysis of the impact of optional consumption Q2 will exceed expectations. Even if the epidemic situation in Shanghai is unsealed, other regional policies still need to be observed; At the same time, it will take more than three months for the regional consumption to fully return to the normal level after unsealing. After the end of the epidemic, the logic of increasing the market share of high-quality white horse assets will be further intensified.
Based on the economic pressure, the steady growth policy will continue and become an important investment main line. Household appliances / consumer building materials consumption will only lag behind and will not disappear. We will continue to be optimistic about the leading target in the post cycle of the real estate industry chain.
Covid-19 epidemic will accelerate the de industrialization of the breeding industry and continue to be optimistic about the related targets of pig and chicken breeding.
The objects benefiting from the epidemic have configuration value, such as Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Qingdao Haier, etc.
Manufacturing companies have gradually experienced supply chain shortages and some overseas companies transfer orders.
How to see the investment opportunities of consumer goods under the epidemic situation
[agricultural breeding] covid-19 epidemic situation intensifies and is optimistic about its elimination.
1. The depolarization of pig cycle is expected to exceed expectations and continue to be optimistic.
At present, market investors hold two different views on pig cycle investment: the first is that the current capacity removal is less than expected, and the capacity clearance and cycle inflection point may be delayed. Now it is too early to participate in investment, and it will be reconfigured when the pig price has a clear inflection point. The second is that the pig price continues to grind to the bottom, the capacity deregulation is still in progress, the cycle trend has not changed, the progress of deregulation only determines the arrival time of the inflection point, and the risk-benefit ratio of pig price bottom allocation is higher.
We propose to adopt the second view on the allocation of pig cycle. The inflection point of the cycle is extremely difficult to judge. There may be many disturbance factors in the transmission process from capacity to output, resulting in the advance or delay of the cycle. Therefore, we suggest to invest in the bottom stage of pig price, focusing on the small-scale pig enterprises [ Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) ], [ Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) ], In the process of pig price bottom grinding, the funds holding the first view will be out, resulting in a correction in the stock price. This is the best opportunity to get on the bus.
Back to the view of the cycle, the relative high point of fertile sows has been removed by nearly 10% at present, and the production capacity will be basically cleared by 3% – 4% in the next three months. However, the supply side may increase the supply stage by stage due to the secondary fattening and outsourcing of piglets under the unanimous expectation. In addition, the impact of the epidemic may also delay the supply at the market side. In terms of demand, catering consumption is weakly affected by the epidemic. Based on comprehensive judgment, we believe that the cycle is expected to have an inflection point by the third quarter of this year.
2. White chicken has entered the production capacity removal cycle, and the best time for configuration is now.
At present, the stock of grandparents and parents has begun to enter the stage of capacity elimination, and the current time point is similar to the pig cycle in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking back at the history, generally, the chicken cycle will follow the pig cycle, but the chicken production capacity will be removed faster and the life cycle will be shorter, so it is generally ahead of the arrival of the pig cycle and the window period will be shorter. In terms of the rhythm of cycle reversal, the price elasticity of chicken seedlings is large and the performance of chicken seedlings Company is the first response, focusing on [ Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) ], [ Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) ], followed by the leader of white chicken integrated industrial chain [ Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) ].
