Key investment points:
Since the beginning of the year, the effectiveness of the “three low” strategy has been continuously verified, and the trend has formed inadvertently. Looking forward to the second quarter, some investors expect the “three high” track stocks to fight back, but we believe that the “three low” comparative advantage will continue.
On April 13, the national Standing Committee focused on promoting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade and financial support for the real economy. On April 15, the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction of 0.25 percentage points. How do you see the impact on the equity market?
How to see the impact of RRR reduction
On April 15, the central bank announced an overall RRR reduction of 0.25 percentage points. Specifically, as for the impact on a shares, we believe that the main foothold lies in the further strengthening of the logic of stabilizing growth chain, but the impact on the index level is limited.
On the one hand, the performance of A-Shares after raising or reducing the reserve requirement since 2010 can be found that the impact of the reduction on the overall market is relatively limited. Logically, RRR reduction is one of the tools to stabilize growth. Logically, RRR reduction is one of the tools to stabilize growth. However, the influencing variables of the market at different stages are complex, and the influence of a single factor is limited. On the other hand, the “three low” strategy has prevailed since this year, which is different from the “three high” strategy in 19 to 20 years. The reason is that China is still in the window of steady growth, and the disturbance to the market valuation after the opening of the high inflation and interest rate hike cycle in the United States. The direct foothold of this RRR reduction is to strengthen the logic of the stable growth chain, but the two macro factors still need to be inflected.
Consumption depression from April to May
On April 13, the national standing committee meeting was held, focusing on promoting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade and financial support for the real economy. Among them, consumption has become a bright spot. The meeting pointed out that consumption has a lasting driving force for the economy and is related to ensuring and improving people’s livelihood. Specific measures: first, we should deal with the impact of the epidemic and promote the recovery and development of consumption. Second, we should accelerate the integration of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption and cultivate “smart +” consumption of Shanghai Dzh Limited(601519) products and services. Third, we should expand consumption in key areas. Fourth, we should guide commercial circulation enterprises and e-commerce platforms to extend to rural areas and promote brand quality consumption into rural areas. Fifth, we should strengthen security.
Mapping to the equity market, we have turned to the “three low” strategy since January, in which steady growth is the key, and the steady growth chain covers infrastructure, real estate and consumption. Since the beginning of the year, infrastructure construction and real estate have made efforts in turn. It is expected that consumption will take over from April to May. Specifically, first, at the policy level, the national Standing Committee focused on “deploying policies and measures to promote consumption”; Second, the seasonal law. The rise and fall law of the industry from 2010 to 2021 shows that the rise probability of household appliances, food and beverage, automobile, bank and non bank in April is the highest (about 58%), the probability of food and beverage in May is the highest (up to 75%), followed by nonferrous metals, household appliances and medicine (up to 67%); Third, consumption is a link in the stable growth chain. After infrastructure construction and real estate are put into force in turn, the share prices of some consumption sub fields are at a low level.
Therefore, looking forward to April May, we will evolve the steady growth chain, deduce the three low levels in depth, and pay attention to consumption depressions, including inflation chain (some mass consumption), real estate post cycle chain (such as home appliances, home appliances, etc.), travel chain (airports, airlines, hotels, etc.).
Risk tip: global inflation continues to exceed expectations; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to exceed expectations.
