Strategy: impact does not change the rebound direction
In the first week of April, there were two major shocks overseas, the adjustment of global risk assets. First, the EU has opened a new round of sanctions against Russia. The coal ban is the first EU ban on Russian energy so far; Second, under inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve said that the table contraction process may occur. It was observed that the term interest rate of US bonds and the interest rate difference between China and the United States were upside down at the same time, and the VIX Index rose. The global stock market adjustment affected a shares.
The main line of “steady growth” is a bright color under the impact. Previously, based on the industry rotation, we divided the market since this year into four stages (see the previous report “turn positive”). Since mid March, the direction of steady growth policy has been confirmed again, and the performance of relevant industries on the main line of “steady growth” has been dominant again. Last week, the infrastructure chain and real estate not only led the market, but also ranked in the forefront of the market.
The necessity of China’s policy relaxation has increased, and the direction of “steady growth” has become clearer. First, during the Qingming holiday, the tourism industry was cold. The number of tourists recovered to 68% in the same period of 19 years, and the income recovered to 39% in the same period of 19 years. The total number of passengers sent was even lower than that in the same period of 2020. Second, industrial enterprises as a whole are in the stage of passive inventory replenishment. The impact of the epidemic affects the commencement and demand, which may lead to the continuation of this stage for a longer time. In this context, the national standing committee set the tone on the 6th, the downward pressure on the economy increased, and the need for relaxation further increased. The “active response to monetary policy” mentioned at the meeting of the Financial Committee on the 16th has a greater probability of landing in the near future, or in the form of RRR reduction.
Some industries have sufficient resilience and rise against the trend. In the environment of passive inventory replenishment of industrial enterprises as a whole, the prosperity of most upstream and a few downstream industries is upward. 1、 Upstream resource products and some consumer industries such as textile and food have entered the stage of actively going to the warehouse and replenishing the warehouse since 2021q4; 2、 High frequency data show that the upstream of infrastructure real estate industry chain such as steel and cement has warmed up, and the overall manufacturing and consumption in the middle and downstream are weak, but the prosperity of some segments such as photovoltaic, dairy products and textile products is better.
Focus on industries that have passivated the impact and can even benefit from the impact.
1) upstream resource products that China’s steady growth and the dislocation of global supply and demand jointly point to, including coal, aluminum and steel and cement with improved meso prosperity under the logic of price difference outside China;
2) real estate with poor fundamental data and strengthened policy support;
3) textile manufacturing with active replenishment cycle and good high-frequency data, soybean with continuous price rise effect and pig breeding with continuous capacity deregulation, shipping ports benefiting from European and American sanctions against Russia and the increase of maritime energy demand, as well as electrical equipment benefiting from the high prosperity of new energy industry.
Risk tip: there are errors in data statistics, the economy is less than expected, the policy is more than expected, and the market fluctuation is more than expected.
