Coal: the profitability of coal enterprises is strong, and the strong performance of the sector continues. Coal price: the port price of thermal coal rebounded slightly, and coking coal and coke continued to be strong. In terms of thermal coal, pit mouth and port continued to decline this week. On the supply side, under the influence of policies and regional traffic control of the epidemic, the transportation capacity is limited, the shipment of coal mines is general, and some coal mines have top warehouses; In consideration of the overhaul of Daqin line in May, the quotation of the port rose. On the demand side, the traditional off-season superimposes the impact of the epidemic, the demand is weak, and the daily consumption of the power plant remains low. We will continue to pay attention to policy changes and the impact of the epidemic in the follow-up. In terms of coking coal and coke, supply and demand continued to be tight and prices continued to be strong. On the supply side, the recent epidemic in Shanxi has been serious, the shipment has been blocked, and the number of coke enterprises with limited production has increased; As for the import of Mongolian coal, on the 4th of this week, Ganqi Maodu port cleared 216 vehicles per day, with an increase of 7 vehicles per week, and the short-term freight and coal prices continued to rise; On the demand side, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is high, but it is difficult to arrive under the influence of the epidemic. The coking coal in the plant is passively lowered to the warehouse. At the same time, the outward transportation of coke is not smooth, and the accumulated coke warehouse is increasing. The downstream steel mills have resumed production in an orderly manner, and some coke inventories have been in urgent need, and even the phenomenon of furnace stewing has occurred, resulting in a strong demand for replenishment. The fifth round of increase of coke enterprises has been implemented. Considering the need to release space, most of them are bullish in the future. Investment suggestion: the profitability of coal enterprises is strong, and the strong performance of the sector continues. With the advent of the off-season, the impact of policies and epidemic situation is superimposed, the demand rhythm is disrupted, and the coal price is seasonally adjusted. However, this does not change the current situation of tight coal supply and demand and the high outlook of the industry. Coal enterprises have successively published annual reports and forecasts of the first quarter report. The performance growth rate is generally fast, and most of them exceed the expected performance; Leading companies paid a high proportion of dividends, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Nonferrous Metals: the core CPI of the United States fell month on month, and China promoted the resumption of work and production. 1) High inflation and geopolitical situation remain the core factors supporting precious metal prices. During the week, the news from Russia and Ukraine said that both Ukraine and Russia have recently invested reinforcements in eastern Ukraine. The news has affected that the two sides may trigger the largest military conflict, the geopolitical conflict continues, and enhance the market risk aversion; During the week, the CPI of the United States recorded a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in March, the highest in nearly 40 years, and the PPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, the highest since 2010. Overseas high inflation supported the high price of precious metals. As of April 15, Comex gold closed at US $1974.9/oz, up 1.51% month on month; COMEX silver closed at US $25.7/oz, up 3.53% month on month; SHFE gold closed at 405.82 yuan / g, up 2.47% month on month; SHFE silver closed at 5235 yuan / kg, up 4.08% month on month. 2) The CPI durable goods sub item in the United States turned negative month on month, and the epidemic continued to impact China’s demand. During the week, the durable goods sub item of the core CPI of the United States turned negative month on month, and the supply and demand relationship of overseas durable goods weakened; The impact of the epidemic is still the main logic of market transactions. After the Ministry of Communications issued a document, the logistics congestion in various places has improved slightly; In addition, the executive meeting of the State Council issued a series of steady growth policies, and the central bank decided to reduce the reserve requirement by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by – 0.1%, – 2.2%, 1.6%, 3.1%, – 0.3% and – 2.5% respectively this week. The overall price fell.
Building materials: at present, it is gradually entering the intensive disclosure period of annual report and first quarterly report. It is suggested to pay attention to the sectors and companies with better performance than expected. At the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of investment in building materials & new materials. First, the prosperity and performance fulfillment are selected from carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries; Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials; Third, cement and water reducing agent are selected for the main line of steady growth; Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, with the support of cost, the industry basically has no downside risk; Float glass prices stabilized and rebounded while demand boosted. 1) In the field of new materials, the “limited overseas supply”, the explosion of demand in new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen downstream of carbon fiber, and China’s leading “grinding a sword in ten years”; Domestic leaders have finished catching up. In the future, capacity expansion and cost reduction will lead to surpassing in the civil field; And we believe that the business continuity in the field of small and medium-sized tow is high. High purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. 2) The glass fiber cycle is weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile and other strong support for demand), the price of electronic cloth has fallen to the bottom range, and the current safety margin is high. 3) The layout of brand building materials is at the right time. Since the second half of the year, the valuation and performance of brand building materials have been killed under weak demand + capital pressure + high cost. In the absence of significant improvement in real estate fundamentals, the policy continued to relax expectations, the credit risk faced by the real estate chain and the pessimistic expectation of market demand were repaired, and the sector rebounded as a whole. According to the historical resumption, the end of the general real estate policy corresponds to the end of the valuation of brand building materials. The end of this round of policy / valuation appears in 21q4. We expect the end of fundamentals to appear in 22q1. On the cost side, the leading low-priced raw material reserves can generally cover 22q1, and the recent easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may lead to a decline in oil prices, so we can focus on the segments with high correlation between costs and oil prices. 4) The cost performance of cement allocation is high. The infrastructure development force and the marginal recovery of real estate under steady growth are expected to support the cement demand to maintain a high platform. However, the further coordination and optimization of cement core logic at the supply side in 22 years has generally strengthened the scope and intensity of peak staggering this year than last year, superimposing the high price center to maintain profitability and toughness. 5) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 6) The bottom price of photovoltaic glass still has upward elasticity. We are optimistic about the adverse expansion and cost competitiveness of leading enterprises, and focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the field of photovoltaic glass; The production and sales of float glass slowed down, and the price is expected to stabilize and recover with the gradual recovery of demand.
Chemical industry: the price of crude oil has reached a new high, the global capital expenditure has warmed up, and the leader of the oil service industry has fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; The rise in oil prices has led to the increase and expansion of chemical products prices, among which private large-scale refining has fully benefited: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , while the relevant industrial chain represented by PTA polyester filament is expected to be driven by both cost and demand: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. As the main body of the chemical industry, the PPI of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in March increased by 15.70% year-on-year, which was positive for 15 consecutive months. In terms of downstream demand, from January to December 2021, the newly started area of houses decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, 0.04% month on month in December, the construction area increased by 5.2% year-on-year from January to December, 6.32% month on month in December, the completed area increased by 11.2% year-on-year from January to December, and 184.9% month on month in December; From January to December, the national automobile output increased by 4.8% year-on-year; From January to December, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 14.2% year-on-year, with strong demand.
On the supply side, the investment in fixed assets in the chemical industry continued to grow. From January to December, the investment in fixed assets in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 15.7% year-on-year. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives in the business cycle Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) . New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is suggested to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Iron and steel: iron ore imports in March were – 14.5% year-on-year. Although there were reasons for the high base, it also reflected that the supply of foreign mines was not abundant. Coal coke is still in short supply, and the inventory of the industrial chain has fallen to a very low level. The recent epidemic in Shanxi has exacerbated the difficulty of transportation, and some steel enterprises have reduced production due to the shortage of raw materials. The rise in raw material prices has become the main factor driving the recent rise in steel prices, and the gross profit per ton of steel has fallen to a low level due to the loosening of administrative production restrictions and low demand. At present, the market is still expected to be stimulated by the acceleration of work after the epidemic, and the short-term black price is supported by the tight supply of raw materials and the recovery of demand.
Risk warning event: the sharp decline of macro-economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase. Policy price limit risk; Coal import volume; The macro economy has fallen sharply. Macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection and other policy fluctuation risks, gold price fluctuation risks, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected risks, and the premise assumptions of industry supply and demand calculation are lower than expected risks. Risks of macroeconomic downturn; The epidemic situation caused the demand to be lower than expected; Risk of relaxation of production restriction and new production capacity; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises. Macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
