Key investment points
Epidemic situation
This round of epidemic has three characteristics: a large number of confirmed cases, a wide range and a great degree of influence. At present, Omicron is distributed at many points across the country, the largest scale since March 2020. The large-scale upgrading of prevention and control policies in many places and the suspension of operations in many regions have had a significant impact on the economy; The development trend of the epidemic in Shanghai is similar to that in Hong Kong, and it is at an inflection point in mid and late April.
Economic shock
Leading indicators: PMI data fell across the board, returned below the boom and bust line, supply and demand contracted, inflation rose, and the risk of imported inflation is still worthy of vigilance; Sub item impact: the impact of the epidemic on the service industry exceeded industrial production, consumption was damaged, and real estate was depressed.
Quantitative calculation: it is estimated that the first quarter's GDP will be dragged down by the social zero method and the 100 city congestion index 8-1.0 percentage points. It is estimated that the GDP in the first quarter is about 4.60% - 4.80%. According to the existing rhythm, the GDP in the second quarter is 4.64% and 3.34% respectively under optimistic and neutral conditions, and the economic bottom will appear in the second quarter.
Policy outlook
Steady growth combined boxing will further strengthen and speed up. Monetary policy will continue to be loose. After the RRR reduction in April, the interest rate reduction window is still in place; At the end of fiscal policy, give full play to the effectiveness of special bonds, stimulate effective investment, and accurately reduce taxes and fees; Infrastructure, real estate and consumption are the three main directions of steady growth.
Risk tips
(1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated
(2) the policy is not as expected
(3) large scale outbreak of geo conflict
