Since March, the epidemic situation (hereinafter referred to as "this round of epidemic") and the effect of epidemic prevention policies have been very different from those in the past. If the impact of the past several rounds of the epidemic stayed in consumption and investment, then the impact of the current round of the epidemic has spread to exports; If the impact of the past several rounds of outbreaks has remained on demand, the impact of this round of outbreaks has spread to industrial production.
This paper discusses in detail the impact of this round of epidemic on exports, which mainly has three impacts: limited port throughput, inland logistics and supply chain constraints, and the loss of overseas orders caused by uncertain enterprise production. According to our calculation results, the impact of the epidemic on port shipments and overseas production orders is the second, and the impact of epidemic control on logistics and supply chain is the greater challenge facing exports.
The impact of this round of epidemic on exports is expected to begin to show in April and beyond. April may show a worrying economic state, with insufficient consumption and investment, while exports are down. It is very likely that the high-profile gas trend exported in the past two years will usher in an inflection point in advance under the impact of the Chinese epidemic.
The epidemic prevention policies adopted in the past few rounds of local epidemics have effectively controlled the epidemic in exchange for the stability of the production and supply chain at the cost of suppressing domestic demand (mainly consumption). In the face of high overseas expansion demand, China's stable supply chain system finally led to the adverse expansion of China's manufacturing industry in the global epidemic, and China's exports also ushered in a year-on-year high growth rarely seen in history. At the same time, exports also contribute to China's economic growth and make room for China's policies.
However, at present, China's consumption is weak, real estate has not improved, and infrastructure construction cannot be opened due to the epidemic. It can be said that at present, China's demand is almost in a "frozen" state. If the epidemic Hits Exports again at this time, it will undoubtedly increase the pressure on China's economic growth and global inflation. China is a very important commodity exporter in the world. China's export constraints will lead to a shortage of global commodity supply, and finally "sprinkle a handful of salt" on global high inflation. This is also the difference between the impact of this round of epidemic and that of the past.
The Ministry of transport recently held a meeting on the coordination mechanism of logistics support, which required to make every effort to ensure the smooth transportation of freight logistics. Recently, some sporadic auto enterprises are preparing to resume work, "and will make timely adjustments according to the controlled situation of the epidemic and their own preparation". We hope that the supply chain problems will be fully solved in the future and the impact of China's epidemic on production and exports will subside as soon as possible.
Risk warning: the epidemic development exceeded expectations; The economic trend exceeded expectations; Overseas demand exceeded expectations.
