Ping An View:
Real economy: this week, the epidemic prevention and control situation is still severe, the operating rate is divided, industrial products are destocked, domestic demand related high-frequency indicators are depressed, most black commodity futures rise, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices fall. 1) From last Saturday to this Friday (April 9 to April 15), a total of 15571 newly confirmed cases were added in 25 provinces, cities and autonomous regions such as Shanghai and Jilin, a significant increase compared with 9535 cases in 28 provinces, cities and autonomous regions from April 2 to April 8. The epidemic prevention situation in China is still grim. 2) Operating rate differentiation. Among them, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt units and mill operation rate related to infrastructure construction increased by 1.8 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points respectively month on month, but they are still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The operating rates of semi steel tires and all steel tires related to the automobile industry chain increased by 1.3 and 7.3 percentage points respectively month on month. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of stopping production of vehicle manufacturers and restraining the operating rate of upstream tires. The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace and coking enterprises related to black goods decreased by 2.4 and 2.6 percentage points respectively month on month. 3) Industrial products to inventory. Among the finished products, the inventory of rebar society decreased by 2.8% month on month, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 1.8% month on month. In the raw material inventory, the port iron ore inventory decreased by 2.3% compared with last week, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 14.4 days, 0.2 days shorter than last week. 4) The high-frequency index of domestic demand is low, and the toughness of external demand is still. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 25.1% month on month, but it is still significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years. Judging from the land supply and transaction area of 100 cities last week, as well as car sales, film box office revenue, subway passenger volume in 9 major cities and traffic congestion index in first tier cities this week, domestic demand is relatively low. China's export container freight rate index stopped falling this week after falling for nine consecutive weeks. Combined with the export data in March, China's export toughness is still improving. However, the downward trend of China's export growth in 2022 is clear. Stabilizing the economy requires efforts to stabilize domestic demand. We believe that promoting consumption will be the focus. 5) Black commodity futures prices rose mostly. This week, the active contract futures prices of coke, thermal coal, coking coal, rebar and iron ore increased by 3.9%, 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.3% respectively month on month, while the overall spot performance of these varieties is relatively weak. In addition to supply constraints, the stable growth expectation is an important reason for the relatively strong performance of black commodity futures. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index fell 2.1% month on month, mainly because the wholesale price of vegetables fell 6.9% month on month, while the wholesale price of fruits and eggs rose 3.3% and 3.5% month on month respectively. The wholesale price of pork rose slightly by 0.4% month on month this week. As of Friday, the price of 18.3 yuan / kg was still low.
Capital market: monetary easing is expected to heat up this week, with loose capital and steep yield curve. In terms of money market, the capital was loose this week, superimposed with the expected warming of reserve requirement reduction. R007 and dr007 decreased by 13.8bp and 21.0bp respectively compared with last week. After work on Friday, the RRR reduction fell to the ground, but the range was less than expected, and the central bank said it would pay close attention to the price situation and the adjustment of monetary policies of major overseas central banks. In the bond market, the loose capital led to a 7.5bp decline in the yield of one-year treasury bonds, and the yields of other major maturities may be subject to the upside down of interest rate spread between China and the United States to a certain extent. The term spread of 10y-1y treasury bonds widened by 8bp, and the yield curve showed a steep trend. In the stock market, most of the main indexes of A-Shares were adjusted, and the growth style decreased relatively. In the foreign exchange market, US bond yields rose, superimposed on the return of safe haven funds and the hawkish attitude of Fed officials, the US dollar index rose above 100 this week and appreciated 0.68% throughout the week. This week, the onshore and offshore RMB depreciated by 0.12% and 0.20% respectively against the US dollar.
Risk tip: the steady growth is not as strong as expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
