Next week (April 18-april 24) financial concerns:
(1) the maturity of reverse repurchase is 60 billion yuan;
(2) the net payment of government debt was - 52.1 billion, lower than the net payment of government debt of 36.9 billion this week;
(3) the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit was 416.6 billion, which was lower than the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit of 593.9 billion this week. Note: April 24 is a working day.
Open market situation this week (April 11 to April 15) and next week
This week, the central bank made a total net withdrawal of 50 billion yuan, of which the 7-day reverse repo was 60 billion yuan and the maturity was 40 billion yuan; One year MLF invested 150 billion yuan and one-year MLF recovered 150 billion yuan; The fixed deposit of January treasury cash is 70 billion yuan due.
Next week (April 18 - April 24), a total of 60 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repos will expire.
Changes in money market interest rates this week
This week (from April 11 to April 15), dr001 fell 50bp to 1.34%, dr007 interest rate fell 18bp to 1.73%, R001 fell 49bp to 1.40%, R007 fell 14bp to 1.87%, gc001 fell 15bp to 1.75% and gc007 fell 15bp to 1.86%. The issuing interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit (stock banks) generally rose: the one-month CD interest rate (stock banks) rose by 3bp to 2.13%, the three-month CD interest rate (stock banks) rose by 4bp to 2.24%, the nine-month CD interest rate (stock banks) remained unchanged at 2.5% from last week, and the one-year CD interest rate (stock banks) rose by 1.6bp to 2.5%, but the six-month CD interest rate (stock banks) fell by 3bp to 2.37%.
The average daily turnover of inter-bank pledged repo this week was 4965.1 billion yuan, down 175.7 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average daily turnover of R001 was 4401.1 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 88.7%, and the average daily turnover of R007 was 452 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 9.1%.
This week, the average daily turnover of the repurchase of new pledged treasury bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1366.1 billion yuan, down 220.4 billion yuan from last week, of which gc001 turnover was 1141.2 billion yuan, accounting for 83.9%, and gc007 turnover was 166.9 billion yuan, accounting for 11.9%.
Weekly tracking of interbank certificates of deposit
This week (from April 11 to April 16), major interbank certificates of deposit issued 589.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 17.7 billion yuan. Compared with last week (major banks issued 186.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 133.7 billion yuan), the issuance scale and net financing amount increased compared with last week. Among them, urban commercial banks and one-year issuing banks have the largest scale, and the success rate of state-owned banks is the highest.
The yield of interbank certificates of deposit generally declined, and the yield of 1-month and AA interbank certificates of deposit decreased the most. From the perspective of issuing interest rates of different banks, the interest rate of certificates of deposit of rural commercial banks decreased the most this week, while the interest rate of share issuance increased by 1.6bp to 2.5%.
In terms of term interest margin, the interest margin between rural commercial banks and joint-stock banks narrowed significantly by 18bp to 6.4bp this week. The interest margin of each term has exceeded the 50% quantile interest margin level since 2017, and the fluctuation of grade interest margin is small. In addition, the "1-year certificate of deposit - 1-year MLF" interest margin of the stock bank increased by 1.6bp to - 35bp, the "1-year certificate of deposit - 10-year national debt" interest margin of the stock bank increased by 2.6bp to - 26.2bp, the interest margin between the 1-year certificate of deposit of the stock bank and R007 increased by 15bp to 62bp, and the interest margin between the 1-year certificate of deposit of the stock bank and R001 increased by 51bp to 110bp.
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; Economic fundamentals have changed more than expected.
