Key investment points:
ECI index: as of April 17, 2022, the ECI supply index this week was 49.77%, down 0.09% from last week; The ECI demand index was 49.10%, down 0.07% from last week. In terms of sub items, the ECI investment index was 48.62%, unchanged from last week; The ECI consumption index was 49.08%, down 0.15% from last week; The ECI export index was 49.48%, down 0.03% from last week.
Supply side: the recovery process of the supply chain is slow, which has a sustained impact on the industry. Affected by the epidemic, the sluggish supply chain has caused great disturbance to industrial production, especially the automobile production industry. However, some cities in East China around Shanghai have opened expressways without setting up cards, and transportation is expected to resume in late April.
Demand side: according to the data released by the passenger Federation on April 11, the car sales fell by 10.5% year-on-year in March, which was lower than expected as a whole. Although the chip supply problem has been significantly improved compared with February, the impact of the epidemic has significantly affected the trading volume in Shanghai, Jilin and other places.
Eli index: as of April 17, 2022, the Eli index was - 0.88% this week, down 0.04% from last week. From the abundant liquidity of the commercial banking system to the improvement of the liquidity of the real economy, there is still a lack of an effective liquidity transmission mechanism. When the real economy is shut down under the disturbance of the epidemic, continued monetary easing will not be effectively transmitted to the real economy. Without a "grasp" to put the liquidity released by the central bank into the real economy, it will only aggravate the former problem. Therefore, after the central bank lowered the reserve requirement, the main contradiction actually pointing to the improvement of the liquidity of the real economy is to resume work and production as soon as possible.
Risk warning: the uncertainty of epidemic situation is still high; Supply chain recovery is not as expected; The economic downturn in the first quarter exceeded expectations.
