Matters:
On April 15, 2022, the people's Bank of China announced that in order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the deposit reserve ratio of 5%). In order to increase the support for small and micro enterprises and "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", for urban commercial banks without inter provincial operation and agricultural commercial banks with deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, an additional 0.25 percentage point will be reduced on the basis of reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage point. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%. When answering a reporter's question on reducing the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, the relevant person in charge of the people's Bank of China mentioned that the RRR reduction released a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds.
Comments:
Is the RRR reduction a rebound signal or a positive one?
Taking the landing signal of the RRR reduction as the dividing line, through the analysis of the average trend of the stock market after the previous RRR reduction, it can be found that: (1) when the RRR reduction just landed, the winning rate of the stock market return is high, but the average return is not high; After landing for a period of time, the winning rate decreases and the average return increases. The reduction of the reserve requirement is undoubtedly beneficial to the reverse direction of the stock market. Within six trading days after the reduction of the reserve requirement, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index strengthening is 57.7%, but subject to the sentiment of the stock market falling in the early stage, the average return is - 0.65%, which is significantly better than - 2.69% in the previous six trading days; The average probability of the stock market strengthening in the 31 trading days after the RRR reduction was 42.3%, and the average rate of return was 0.32%. (2) After the RRR reduction is implemented, it will benefit finance first, and then be transmitted to the gem and growth. According to the average experience of previous RRR reductions, financial stocks and gem rebounded within 6 trading days after the landing of RRR reduction boots, and then the gem showed obvious advantages over the broader market. From the 31st to 41st trading days after RRR reduction, the growth of gem is generally better than the broader market, and the five style indexes will rise to varying degrees. Figure 1-2 shows the back test results of the cumulative return caliber. Figures 3 and 4 show the back test results of the average return, and the conclusion is similar.
For different investment strategies, the landing of RRR reduction is not only an opportunity for short-term rebound, but also a signal of all the benefits in the medium term: if the initial goal is to wait for the policy to fully benefit the market and get out in time, you can rebound in a single week time window. At this time, the winning rate is slightly higher, but the range is not strong; If you want to get a better excess return, you can increase your position later and take one month as the time window as an opportunity. Although the winning surface will gradually decrease, the rate of return is relatively higher.
Idea of industry allocation after RRR reduction: the main line of "steady growth" this year is a clear card, but the willingness of credit in the physical field, especially in the residential sector, is not sufficient, and the confirmation from credit pulse to profit is not clear. Then, in the positive situation promoted by loose liquidity at the denominator, we can focus on the varieties of "stable growth" in the short term. Molecular end profit has not been confirmed, and high growth sectors still need to be cautious. In the short term, industries with both "winning rate" and "return rate" after previous sharp declines and rebounds, such as building materials, food, agriculture, coal and other sectors, can be considered for allocation. From the medium-term perspective, when the overseas interest rate increase in the third quarter is switched to the table reduction and the rhythm is changed by space, the US bond interest rate has a downward window, the policy pulse bottoms twice and the bottom is deeper. After the profit is repaired under the power of "steady growth" in the third and fourth quarters, we can pay attention to the time point of medium and long-term allocation and the opportunity of style switching.
Risk tip: the number of overseas interest rate increases exceeded expectations, the supply bottleneck has not been alleviated in the short term, and the policy pulse bottoming time exceeded expectations.
