Research conclusion
Event: on April 13, 2022, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data. The total import and export value in March 2022 was US $504.79 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% (22.2% and 8.1% in January and February respectively), and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 13% (the previous value was 15.9%). Among them, the export increased by 14.7% (24.1% and 6.2% in January and February respectively) and the import increased by - 0.1% (19.8% and 10.4% in January and February respectively).
Overall export growth continued to release positive signals. From January to March, the cumulative export was 15.8% year-on-year, only 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous value, indicating that the export toughness is still continuing.
The export growth of mechanical and electrical products and bulk commodities such as aluminum and steel remained resilient. In March, the cumulative export amount of mechanical and electrical products was 12.1% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 12.5%. Among them, general equipment and mobile phones increased by 4.5 and 4.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18.1% and 5.3% respectively; The cumulative value is the same as that before automatic processing; The cumulative value of automobile (including chassis) decreased by 16.5 percentage points to 87.1%. In terms of proportion, the proportion of the export amount of mechanical and electrical products in the total export in the current month increased by 0.4 percentage points to 58.7% compared with the cumulative value from January to February. In addition, high prices continue to drive the export growth of some bulk commodities such as aluminum and steel.
The export growth rate of epidemic prevention products such as textile yarn, fabric and its products continued to rise in the early stage. At the same time, the overseas epidemic prevention policy was further liberalized or promoted the export of clothing with social attributes to a certain extent. The cumulative value of textile yarn, fabric and its products increased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.1% compared with the previous value, indicating that the demand for overseas epidemic prevention is still strong; At the same time, foreign trade orders for clothing are relatively sufficient (the retail sales of clothing in the United States also increased significantly year-on-year in February). The cumulative value of clothing and clothing accessories with social attributes increased by 1.3 percentage points to 7.4% compared with the previous value, which may be related to the further easing of epidemic prevention policies in many countries in the near future.
After the real estate cycle, the export of products continued to be depressed. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of furniture, household appliances, lamps and other real estate in the post cycle is still significantly lower than the overall export growth rate. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of furniture and lamps increased by 1.7 and 3.9 percentage points to 3.9% and - 2.1% respectively compared with the previous value, but it is still far less than the double-digit growth in 2021 (even the two-year compound growth rate).
The proportion of exports to ASEAN has rebounded, but the growth rate is still lower than that to the United States. In March, exports to the United States, Europe, ASEAN and South Korea accounted for 17.1%, 16.1%, 15.1% and 4.8%, up - 1.2, - 1.8, 2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value. However, the growth rate of exports to the United States increased significantly. The year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States, Europe, ASEAN and South Korea in the current month was 22.4%, 21.4%, 10.4% and 14.4%, up 12.6, 6.1, 4.5 and 7.7 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value.
The import of energy commodities such as coal and refined oil decreased significantly, dragging down the overall growth rate. Under the background of high import prices of some bulk commodities, the year-on-year growth rate of import amount in March turned negative, with a cumulative decrease of 5.9 percentage points to 9.6% compared with February. Among them, the growth rate of coal, lignite and refined oil decreased significantly, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate decreased by 51.8 and 15.2 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value; The growth rate of some production raw materials, intermediate products and capital products decreased, and the cumulative growth rate of copper ore and its concentrate, integrated circuits and machine tools decreased by 6.9, 4.6 and 8.7 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value.
As of March, the impact of the epidemic on China's port operation efficiency was limited, and the share is expected to continue to support export resilience. The subsequent prediction of the export environment is mixed. On the one hand, the recovery cycle of some developed countries shows signs of peaking. At the same time, inflation caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine inhibits global economic growth, so the WTO has lowered the expectation of Global trade growth; But at the same time, the optimistic factors can not be ignored: (1) at present, the operating efficiency of some ports in the United States and the sea freight price index are far from returning to the level before the epidemic (although they are significantly better than that in January), indicating that the blocking points of its supply chain are still not completely unblocked; (2) The effects of measures to strengthen the linkage of regional logistics systems such as China's public water transfer and public rail transfer continue to show. The container throughput of the eight coastal hub ports shows that the impact of the epidemic on the overall operation efficiency of ports across the country is still relatively limited, and the port loading and unloading operation is still normal. According to Liu Peng, deputy director of the water transport bureau of the Ministry of transport, even the Shanghai port with the most serious epidemic is improving, and the time of international container ships in port The berthing time showed a downward trend.
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic on China's logistics exceeded expectations and affected the advantages of China's whole industrial chain: the national vehicle freight flow index in April was only 80-90% of that in March. It is still uncertain whether the impact of the epidemic on logistics will be further increased.
