From January to March 2022, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 104872 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, the former value was 12.2%, and the downward value was 2.9 PCT. The investment in high-tech industry increased by 27.0%, down 7.4pct from the previous value, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and service industry increased by 32.7% and 14.5% year-on-year, down 10.0 and 1.5pct respectively from the previous value.
I. major projects started at the right time, and infrastructure investment increased steadily
The year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in March was 11.8% and 8.6% from January to February, up 3.2pct from the previous value; In combination, we believe that there are two main reasons for the steady growth of infrastructure construction in March: first, the continuous fermentation of the "ballast" effect of Changxie coal, the large power consumption of power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries, the limited profit compression space of enterprises and the increased willingness of enterprises to invest; Second, major projects in all provinces started successively in March and April. Previously, the investment constraints caused by project shortage have been significantly improved. Excluding the influence of price factors, the infrastructure growth excluding electric heating, water combustion and supply industry has also started a marginal upward trend. The successive commencement of major projects will support the steady growth of infrastructure investment.
II. The effect of policy relaxation is limited, and the real estate structure has deteriorated across the board
The growth rate of real estate investment in March was - 2.4% year-on-year, and 3.7% from January to February, down 6.1pct from the previous value. Except that the growth rate of data at the land acquisition end was narrowed, the other sub item data fell by different ranges, and all structural data fell below 0 and entered the negative growth range. In March, the real estate data fell across the board, showing a weak pattern of both supply and demand. The loose real estate policy continued to increase, but the investment and sales performance decreased significantly. In addition to the short-term disturbance caused by the epidemic, the current weak willingness of residents to buy houses is the fundamental reason for the lack of confidence of real estate enterprises in the overall investment of the industry.
Looking ahead to the future, the previous marginal relaxation of real estate policies in various provinces and cities and the reduction of LPR interest rate have not completely reversed the situation of insufficient demand and weakening expectations. Affected by weak sales performance and low willingness of residents to buy houses, the real estate industry is still facing downward risks. The middle of the year is the peak of debt repayment, and it may be difficult for short-term real estate enterprises to get out of financial difficulties. The subsequent improvement of the epidemic may bring limited benefits to real estate investment, However, for the judgment of the actual inflection point of the real estate industry, we still need to pay attention to the follow-up sales performance.
III. The epidemic broke out in a concentrated manner, and manufacturing investment fell
In March, the growth rate of manufacturing investment in the month was 12.2% year-on-year, which was 20.9% from January to February, down 8.7pct from the previous month. Combined with consumption and export data, the manufacturing investment data in March is the result of the game between overseas demand and the weak situation of supply and demand in China. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic in April on Chinese consumption will still be obvious, or the willingness of enterprises to invest will be further reduced; Secondly, although the export growth rate in March was relatively strong due to the increase of overseas supply disturbance factors, according to the historical data of the same period, the upward range of export in March was slightly lower than that of the same period in previous years. With the weakening of export dividend, China's epidemic situation is stable, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment may return to the marginal downward trend.
Risk tip: China's epidemic development exceeded expectations, and the change of credit environment exceeded expectations.
