Tracking and comments on the data of clothing and cosmetics Amoy department in December: the sales of Amoy Department platform in clothing, shoes and bags industry decreased by 29% year-on-year in December, with a decrease of 5pct month on month compared with November; The cosmetics industry fell 24% year-on-year in December, with a decline of 15pct month on month compared with November. From the perspective of brands: in the clothing industry, the leading brands of shoes and clothing in December Sinotrans Limited(601598) showed a year-on-year decline, among which Anta, FILA, Li Ning and Tebu turned to a year-on-year decline in December; The decline of 361 degrees in December expanded, while the decline of leading international sports shoes and clothing brands Nike and Adidas also expanded; Among other clothing brands, the decline of most brands expanded in December.
Cosmetics: in December, many skin care brands outside China weakened. In China’s skin care products sector, the year-on-year growth rate of baicaoji and Winona increased month on month in November; The performance of other brands in December was lower than that in November. For example, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) year-on-year growth slowed down; Yuze and kuadi fell year-on-year; The year-on-year decline of MARUMI, nature hall and Baique increased. In the international skin care products sector, except Olay and snow show, which turned positive year-on-year in December, the performance of other brands deteriorated in December, and L’Oreal, Shiseido, Estee Lauder and later turned downward year-on-year; Arden, Lancome and skii decreased more year-on-year.
According to the bulletin on the investigation of national fitness activities in 2020, the proportion of people participating in physical exercise in China continues to grow. In 2020, the proportion of people aged 7 and over who often participate in physical exercise was 37.2%, an increase of 3.3pct compared with 2014. Sports consumption increased significantly. In 2020, the per capita sports consumption of Chinese adults was 1758.2 yuan and that of the elderly was 1092.2 yuan, an increase of 81.56% and 116.71% respectively compared with 2014.
Market review: textile and garment sector: last week (January 4 to January 7, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rose or fell by – 1.65%, – 3.46% and – 2.39% respectively, and the textile and garment sector rose 1.52%, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan industries; Among them, the textile manufacturing sector rose 2.59%, and the clothing and home textile sector rose 0.73%. In the past month (from December 8, 2021 to January 7, 2021), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rose or fell by – 0.43%, – 2.41% and – 2.03% respectively, and the textile and garment sector rose by 5.56%, ranking 11th among the 31 Shenwan industries. Cosmetics sector: the cosmetics sector fell 11.51% last week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 9.12pct. The cosmetics sector fell 11.00% in the past month, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.98pct. Compared with 31 industries of Shenwan level, the cosmetics sector ranked 32nd in terms of rise and fall over the past week and 31st in terms of rise and fall over the past month.
Industry news: French luxury brand Louis Vuitton launched its first ski series; Liujing, founder of UNIQLO, first talked about the Xinjiang cotton incident, saying that he would remain neutral between China and the United States; Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) led the construction of Yunnan characteristic plant extraction laboratory; On January 7, the standard for quality management of cosmetics production was officially issued; Estee Lauder group’s price rise spread in the industry; Sun Laichun, founder of Lin Qingxuan, publicly accused Chanel of unfair competition.
Investment suggestions: 1) textile and garment industry: China’s consumption is expected to remain weak in the short term, and the multi-point recurrence of the epidemic has hindered offline passenger flow and overall consumer confidence. However, from the structural point of view, it is considered that the sports shoes and clothing track is still relatively prosperous, and the sales of international leading brands in Greater China are under pressure under the background of blocked supply chain, which has brought good opportunities for the development of domestic brands; In addition, the Winter Olympics is approaching, which is expected to drive China’s sports related consumption. We continue to be optimistic about the continuation of the national trend, and recommend Anta sports, Li Ning and Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) with high-end positioning in the field of professional sports and sports fashion; In the field of non sportswear, it is recommended to pay attention to the leaders of undervalued sub categories, including home textile Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) and men’s wear Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) . In terms of textile manufacturing, Shenzhou International, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , which has full orders, strong growth sustainability and a solid position as a high-quality head manufacturer, is recommended from the perspective of long-term competitiveness. 2) Make up
Product industry: the cosmetics industry maintains the previous view. After the big promotion in November, the sales turn weak and the big promotion hoarding effect is strong. It is expected that there are few surprises in the short-term data. Continue to recommend Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic growth rate is down, and the terminal consumption is weak due to repeated epidemics or extreme weather, which affects the consumption demand of clothing, cosmetics and other products; The intensification of industry competition and the price war of foreign leading brands will have an adverse impact on China’s benchmark brands; E-commerce platform traffic growth slowed down and traffic costs increased.
