Key investment points:
Key points:
1. Since 2008, China has experienced five rounds of credit expansion cycles, respectively from October 2008 to November 2009, may 2012 to April 2013, June 2015 to March 2016, December 2018 to June 2019 and March October 2020. Each round of wide credit cycle has a certain regularity, and it goes through the process from monetary easing first to the continuous development of credit side policies until the economy stabilizes or gradually tightens after financial risk exposure.
2. The past five wide credit cycles were mainly driven by real estate, non-standard and special bonds. Real estate and non-standard have strong support for credit expansion, and the support of special bonds is general. Among them, real estate is the main focus of China's wide credit. In the past four rounds, it has been mainly driven by real estate. Before 2016, infrastructure investment relies more on non-standard financing, and projects are mostly concentrated in traditional infrastructure fields such as transportation and water conservancy construction. After 2016, it relies more on special bonds, and new infrastructure fields such as new energy power construction and information infrastructure construction usher in an investment boom.
3. During the wide credit period, A-Shares are easy to go up and difficult to go down, especially when the credit expansion enters the acceleration period, which corresponds to the stage with the largest rise slope of the market. Before 2016, the impact of wide credit on the market was impulsive. The real estate chain and counter cyclical sectors could outperform the market in stages, but the market persistence was poor, generally within one month. After 2019, the new infrastructure will develop, corresponding to A-share power equipment, utilities, new energy vehicles and other industries, with significant excess returns.
4. The probability of this round of wide credit cycle will rely on the large amount of special bonds to support the economy by stimulating infrastructure investment. The first quarter is an important observation window for infrastructure development. The direction of policy support for green loans is determined, but the relatively limited scale will be difficult to support the comprehensive expansion of credit. The marginal recovery of real estate financing will help social finance stabilize and recover, but the extent depends on the degree of policy relaxation. It is expected that this round of credit expansion will be relatively restrained.
5. Under the wide credit cycle, it is recommended to pay attention to two configuration clues. First, timely grasp the phased investment opportunities of new and old infrastructure, including building materials, building decoration, construction machinery, as well as digital economy fields such as big data, cloud computing and Internet of things of new infrastructure. Second, after the phased release of the negative factors of growth style, adhere to the direction of growth diffusion, focus on the subdivided fields such as software development, it services and optical images under the background of automotive intelligence and meta universe along the deductive path of the industrial cycle.
