I. market view: you can wait a little longer, but you don’t have to be too pessimistic
1. In the next six months, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit will gradually expand; ② Profit decline; 3. The valuation of stocks and bonds is not cheap in the vicinity of the mean value, which corresponds to the early stage of credit expansion, the index range shocks, and the current adjustment will open the space for spring restlessness. The two quarter of spring may be readjust again after the agitation.
2. In the middle of the year, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit continues to expand; ② Profits bottomed out and rebounded; ③ The stock bond yield difference may fall back to the extremely cheap position of – 2x standard deviation; ④ High risk appetite before the “20th National Congress” – the index may have index level opportunities in the middle of the year, and positions may become winners and losers at this stage.
3. Historically, the increase probability of wandequan a in “New Year’s Day – Spring Festival” is only 41.7%, while that in “Spring – two sessions” is 91.7%. Therefore, the market itself can rise and fall in January. There is no need to be overly pessimistic because of the current rise and fall. The main opportunity for restlessness in spring depends on February.
4. The key indicator, the yield difference of CSI 500 bonds, is approaching the buying position of – 2x standard deviation. The last time was at the end of July 2021. Assuming that the Treasury bond interest rate drops by 5bp in the next ten years and the CSI 500 falls by about 4%, the stock bond yield difference will fall to – 2x standard deviation. Therefore, we can wait a little longer, but we don’t have to be too pessimistic. (at present, the top five weights of 500 are medicine, electronics, new electronics, military industry and computer)
5. At present, the adjustment range of the high boom track is close to being in place, but there is still a lack of time. According to the resumption of other high boom tracks in the past decade and the high boom track adjustment caused by external factors rather than fundamental factors, the general industry index has decreased by 15-20% and the adjustment time is 30-50 trading days.
6. The old infrastructure and real estate have made great contributions to the supporting economy, but their impact on the industry itself is relatively weak. A single new infrastructure and new manufacturing industry make little contribution to the underlying economy, but the impact on the industry itself is relatively strong and sustainable. In the new infrastructure and new manufacturing industry, the focus is on [nuclear power] and [5g + industrial Internet].
7. It is found that the market has been seriously involuted in recent years, and everyone has started to layout the subdivided industries that are expected to be good in the coming year from Q4. Moreover, the market often chooses the right direction in Q4. For the 20 segments (Tianfeng strategy segment) with the highest Q4 growth in 18, 19 and 20 years, the probability of obtaining excess return in the next year is about 70%. This is why we began to recommend the two directions of industry outbreak and dilemma reversal in the next 22 years in the Q4 strategy. Of course, in hindsight, there are some industries that are fried wrong, but most of them have encountered irresistible external forces, such as epidemic situation or policy mutation. Therefore, the forward direction of 21q4 growth deserves special attention: such as “automobile +”, “computer +”, metauniverse, military industry, industrial Internet, mandatory food, pork, traditional Chinese medicine, etc. (Note: conversely, the average performance of Q4 does not mean that there is no chance next year).
II. Special discussion: how does US debt affect the pricing of different types of assets?
\u3000\u30001. From the model, we can see the sensitivity of different types of equity assets to interest rate
① the change of interest rate has an impact on all assets (the discount value or valuation is opposite to the interest rate). ② Consumption (or public) with stable profits is more sensitive to interest rates. ③ Compared with interest rates, technology and cycles pay more attention to the volatility of their own profits. The essence is that the earnings of science and technology and cyclists are more volatile, and the discount value of the “high growth rate + high interest rate” combination may be significantly higher than that of the “low growth rate + low interest rate” combination. ④ The profit fluctuation of science and technology comes from its own industrial cycle, and most of the profit fluctuation of the cycle comes from the macroeconomic cycle. In the process of rising profits, the sensitivity of interest rates may further decline (the market pays more attention to the current growth rate).
\u3000\u30002. 50 years of U.S. stocks, pricing laws of different types of equity assets
(1) from the long-term perspective of U.S. stocks, the valuation center of industries with strong profit stability generally has a reverse relationship with the interest rate center. For example: public utilities, general retail, health care, food and beverage. (2) For science and technology, its valuation depends more on its own industrial cycle (semiconductor cycle). (3) However, it does not mean that the valuation of the technology industry is not affected by interest rates. The core of its judgment lies in whether the numerator elasticity is large or the denominator elasticity is large. After 2010, the valuations of [hardware and equipment], [electronic and electrical equipment] and [software and computer services] began to have a reverse relationship with interest rates – a new “beautiful 50”.
Risk tips: macroeconomic risk, epidemic risk outside China, risk of performance falling short of expectations, etc.
