One week market view
In the first week of 2022, the global market generally ushered in shock adjustment. Among them, overseas was mainly affected by the accelerated expectation of monetary policy tightening released by the minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve and the rapid spread of Omicron. Driven by the recovery of real interest rate, the US bond interest rate rose sharply by 24bp in a single week, and the growth sector represented by the NASDAQ index adjusted more sharply, falling by 4.5% in a single week. China ushered in the spread and deepening of the pattern of switching between high and low valuations. The growth style represented by the gem index fell by 6.8% in a single week. Under the joint influence of factors such as the multi-point spread of the epidemic in China, differences in stable growth expectations and the spread of external emotions, fund position adjustment is more inclined to the defensive sector of undervaluation. The real estate, infrastructure industry chain and some white horse blue chip stocks with in-depth adjustment ushered in valuation repair, High boom tracks such as new energy, semiconductor and CXO with high cumulative growth in the early stage ushered in general adjustment.
We believe that the short-term A-share market game still focuses on the expected force direction of the steady growth policy, and the rebalancing between the high and low sectors will continue to be deduced. However, the sustainability of the valuation repair of the undervalued sector needs to observe whether there is the support of performance improvement expectations, and some high boom tracks with strong performance growth expectations may still be upward after periodic adjustment. Therefore, In the short term, balanced allocation is recommended, and the new market main line still needs to wait for the policy landing point and the new performance growth point in 2022. In addition, considering that the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to be ahead of schedule, the first quarter has become the best window period for China's easing. The overall macro liquidity is relatively abundant, which is supported by a relatively friendly capital environment in the capital market. However, the pace of China's easing still needs to observe the performance of economic and credit data. The overall capital pressure in January is at a low level in the same period since 2017, Currency operation may be mainly stable.
The deepening of capital market reform will help to enhance market vitality in the long term. The science and Innovation Board plans to pilot the market maker system and further improve the supporting system construction around the registration system reform. On January 7, 2022, the CSRC drafted the pilot provisions on stock market making trading business of securities companies on the science and Innovation Board (Draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the market making provisions). The science and Innovation Board established in 2019 is a test field for this round of capital market reform. The board is benchmarked against the development and construction of overseas mature markets. From the earliest pilot registration system to the pilot market maker system, it will help to increase market liquidity and enhance the function of price discovery. The market vitality will be further improved, and the trend of investor institutionalization is expected to be further accelerated. Considering that the system is still in the initial exploration stage, it has high requirements for internal control, compliance and risk control of securities companies, and the leading securities companies with strong comprehensive strength have relatively more competitive advantages.
Focus of the week
The construction of multi-level capital market has been improved, and the guiding opinions on the board transfer of Listed Companies in Beijing stock exchange has been officially implemented. The establishment of the Beijing stock exchange is an important measure to deepen the reform of the new third board. The implementation of the guidance further defines the board transfer arrangement, which helps to improve the multi-level capital market system and better serve the development of the real economy. Specific adjustments include name revision and clear listing time calculation. For example, the "national share transfer company" and "selected layer company" are revised to "Beijing stock exchange" and "Beijing Stock Exchange listed company" respectively, and the "board transfer listing" is revised to "board transfer"; Make it clear that a listed company on the Beijing stock exchange shall have been listed on the Beijing stock exchange for one year, and its listing time on the original selection layer and the listing time on the Beijing stock exchange can be calculated together.
