This week’s view
Steel industry: continue to be optimistic about the pipeline industry
As of January 7, the five varieties of thread, hot coil, medium and heavy plate, cold rolling and wire rod reported 4749 yuan / ton, 4832 yuan / ton, 4999 yuan / ton, 5388 yuan / ton and 5097 yuan / ton respectively this week. The circumferential ratio changed by 0.4%, 1.1%, – 0.8%, 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. In terms of social inventory, this week’s social inventory was 8.8875 million tons, which began to accumulate and increased by 139200 tons on a weekly basis. Gross profit per ton of steel narrowed. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy plate, cold rolling and wire rod was 334 yuan, 232 yuan, 222 yuan, 311 yuan and 544 yuan respectively, down 133 yuan, 103 yuan, 169 yuan, 136 yuan and 138 yuan compared with last week.
As the supply side rebounded this week, the sudden closure of Customs in Indonesia had an impact on market sentiment, and the price of raw materials rose in the short term. Steel profits have narrowed. In the short term, the new year is approaching, the downstream construction and manufacturing industries are gradually entering the off-season, and the short-term demand is weak. However, we still need to pay attention to the accumulation of storage at the current stage and the large demand brought by the commencement after the year.
The pipeline related targets continued to rise this week. We believe that the policy break signal continues to be released, superimposing the word “stability” of the economy in 2022. Local government meetings have been held to discuss this year’s economic work. At present, the pipeline industry is gradually transitioning from expectation to policy implementation. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
In addition, our first subdivided high-end variety of steel, electrical steel, is the core magnetic material driving modern industry. In particular, high-grade non oriented electrical steel for new energy vehicles has extremely high technical barriers. Baosteel and Shougang master the core technology. Since new energy vehicles can only use high-grade non oriented silicon steel instead of all varieties, the consumption of new energy vehicles will account for 10% of the output of high grades in 2020. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (2021-2023) has been released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is recommended to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Focus on the subject
Industrial plate companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) . Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) . Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) . Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) , Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline Co.Ltd(603616) , Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) , Shandong Longquan Pipeline Engineering Co.Ltd(002671) .
Nonferrous Industry: before the Spring Festival, the stock reserve drives the continuous rise of raw material prices in the upstream of new energy, which also reflects the current shortage of upstream supply and the low inventory state of the industrial chain. We believe that the tight balance between supply and demand and low inventory in the industrial chain will continue in the future, and the price is expected to continue to rise in the lithium sector. This week, spodumene quoted us $2610 / ton, up 1.95%; Lithium hydroxide quoted 223500 yuan / ton, up 7.19%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 311500 yuan / ton, up 16.45%. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 905000 yuan / ton, 2940000 yuan / ton and 12165000 yuan / ton this week, up 6.72%, 1.38% and 7.51% respectively. In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future. We are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency energy-saving and miniaturization of motors for a long time, and the demand for new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era;
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices fell 0.70% this week to close at 69520 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price rose 3.27% to close at 21130 yuan / ton. (1) Abroad, the Fed’s recent statement is more hawkish, and the market expects that the interest rate increase may come in advance, which is bad for copper with strong financial attributes; However, the other side of the interest rate increase is the sustained recovery of the global economy, which also supports the copper price from the fundamentals; The planned suspension of the operation of large aluminum smelters in Europe has obviously aroused market supply concerns. The property of aluminum energy has led to continuous interference at the supply side in the double carbon process. The rise of energy prices will certainly drive the aluminum price center much higher than before. (2) From the perspective of China, the growth direction of steady growth is determined, and the relevant policies are gradually clarified and actively promoted from top to bottom. We are optimistic about the bottom recovery of demand in the first half of 2022, and the upstream metal raw materials are expected to usher in a new round of market in the first quarter; At present, the price of alumina has fallen, the price of aluminum has rebounded, the average profit of simulated electrolytic aluminum industry has reached 3866 yuan / ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum has continued to improve. (3) On the whole, the current valuations of basic metal related targets have reflected extremely pessimistic expectations. It is expected to usher in fundamental repair in the future. At the same time, superimposed valuation repair will usher in a new round of market in the metal raw materials industry.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u3000 China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) 、 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 、 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 、 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) 、 Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) 、 Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) 、 China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) 、 Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) 、 Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) 、 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) 、 Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) 、 Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) 、 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) 、 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) 、 Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 、 Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) 、 Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) 、 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of upstream raw materials, the risk that the downstream demand is less than expected, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
