Focus on solid waste treatment related sectors. The national development and Reform Commission recently issued the notice on carrying out comprehensive utilization demonstration of bulk solid waste, announcing 40 demonstration bases for comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste and 60 backbone enterprises for comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste. Promote the realization of the goal of “the annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste will reach about 4 billion tons by 2025”. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China will continue to pay close attention to the “double carbon” policy and accelerate the establishment of a green circular economy system. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in new energy and sanitation equipment, energy conservation and emission reduction, recycling and regeneration.
Cement and glass prices fell. In the northern region, the kiln shutdown during the heating season is under way. At the same time, some southern provinces have also started the kiln shutdown during the peak staggering season. The downward demand has driven the cement price down. This week’s clinker storage capacity decreased slightly by 0.08 percentage points compared with the previous week; The operating rate of cement mill increased by 2.86 percentage points month on month. With the rise of coal price and the decline of cement price, the cement coal price difference decreased month on month, but it was still improved compared with last year. Due to the weakening of demand month on month, the inventory of float glass enterprises increased. In terms of cost, the price of soda ash has declined to a certain extent, and the price of fuel has increased. The comprehensive profit of float glass industry showed a slight downward trend.
Under the expectation of resumption of production, steel output continues to rise, and the upward movement of cost line supports the strengthening of steel price. This week, the cost line moved up to support a slight increase in steel prices, and the gross profit per ton of steel rebounded to the previous high. In terms of supply, the high gross profit per ton of steel led to a significant recovery in output, which was in line with the expectation of resumption of production; In terms of demand, it rebounded slightly, but it is still low. Compared with the same period last year, it has significant characteristics in the off-season; Because the increase of output is greater than consumption, the inventory is accumulated. On the raw material side, iron ore, coke and scrap all strengthened this week, and the upward movement of the cost line supported the steel price. In the short and medium term, under the dual background of limited production in the heating season and the Winter Olympic Games, the crude steel output may still maintain a relative position, and the steel market still continues the double weak pattern of supply and demand.
Long term logic, coal supply constraints are still. The bottleneck of supply growth is obvious. Coal enterprises’ enthusiasm to invest in new mines is weak, and the economy is poor. The long construction cycle of new production capacity and complex approval procedures all restrict the growth of coal production capacity. The double carbon background determines that the coal supply will remain stable, and Sanxi and Xinjiang with excellent resource endowment will remain strong. At the same time, The stability of coal price is very important to the healthy development of the whole industry. The periodicity of the industry is weakened and the profit stability is enhanced. The cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years has also laid a solid foundation for some coal enterprises to develop in depth into new energy, new materials and industries.
Investment suggestion: environmental protection and public use: it is recommended to pay attention to Infore Environment Technology Group Co.Ltd(000967) (000967. SZ), Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) (300614. SZ), Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) (603588. SH), Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) (002266. SZ), Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) (688087. SH). Building materials: recommended Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (002791. SZ), Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786. SZ), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271. SZ), {300737. SZ), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372. SZ), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636. SH), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176. SH). Steel: recommended Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019. SH), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932. SZ), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756. SZ), Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) (600399. SH), Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708. SZ). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088. SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225. SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (000983. SZ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (600348).
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Risk that downstream demand is less than expected; Risk that the landing effect of production restriction is less than expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
