One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the number of new confirmed cases in the world has increased explosively, and the amount of vaccination has continued to decline. In the last week, about 11.51 million and 40000 new confirmed cases and deaths of covid-19 pneumonia were recorded worldwide. Compared with the previous week, the new confirmed cases increased by 93.6% and the new deaths decreased by 8.3%. The total amount of global vaccination continued to decline this week, and the average value on the 7th decreased by 17.5% compared with last week. Among them, the amount of vaccination in the United States decreased by 43.5% compared with last week, and the amount of vaccination in Europe decreased by 11.1% compared with last week. The enhanced vaccination rate in Europe and the United States is high, and European countries may not take new epidemic prevention measures. British Prime Minister Boris said that with the surge of Omicron, the medical system will enter a state of war readiness, and some departments will feel "temporarily overwhelmed", but he "is likely" not to implement new measures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that as of January 1, Omicron accounted for 95.4% of new cases in the United States, while the proportion of delta, which once dominated, fell to 4.6%.
Overseas: the hawk voice of the Federal Reserve is loud and clear, and the interest rate hike of the European Central Bank is heating up. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve show that in view of the rising inflationary pressure and the strengthening of the labor market, it is no longer necessary for the Federal Reserve to maintain a more relaxed monetary policy, and it is necessary to raise the federal funds rate in advance or at a higher rate than previously expected. Brad of the Federal Reserve said that the Federal Reserve was "very surprised" at the level of inflation and that the Federal Reserve would "be duty bound" to take action to maintain its credibility. European Central Bank Management Committee nott said that if prices continue to rise unexpectedly, the central bank may lift stimulus measures faster than currently planned. He said he was relieved that the European Central Bank would phase out its bond purchase plan in 2022. In December 2021, the US ism manufacturing PMI fell to 58.7, the lowest since January last year, and the previous value was 61.1. There were 10.562 million job vacancies in jolts in the United States last November, down sharply from October, but still at a high level.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices rose and international oil prices rebounded. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture rose month on month, and the average prices of 28 key monitored vegetables and 7 key monitored fruits both rose. The average prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rebounded month on month this week, and the prices of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal and rebar fell.
Liquidity: the bill interest rate rose and the US dollar index rebounded. The short-term capital interest rate is differentiated. The weekly mean value of dr001 is up 20.4bp month on month, and the weekly mean value of dr007 is down 36.4bp month on month. This week, the weekly average of 3-month Shibor interest rate and 3-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased month on month. Note interest rates continued to rebound, and the weekly average of 1-month, 6-month and 1-year rediscount interest rates of state-owned shares and silver notes rose month on month. This week, the central bank carried out 40 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired. The dollar index rebounded this week and the RMB depreciated slightly.
Performance of major categories of assets: A shares and U.S. stocks corrected, and treasury bond interest rates rose. This week, US stocks, especially technology stocks, significantly corrected, A-Shares also performed poorly, and the gem index fell sharply. In terms of China's rights and interests, the top three industries this week were real estate, household appliances and building decoration, and electrical equipment and national defense industry led the decline of a shares. This week, the weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 1.9bp, and the weekly average yield of 10-year CDB bonds rose by 0.9bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
