Main views of overseas markets in one week: the global market still maintains a high fluctuation trend this week. It is suggested that the overall defense is partial at this stage. Among the growth stocks in US stocks this week, there was a correction in the fields of information technology and biotechnology. This week, the S & P 500 information technology fell by 3.82% and the S & P 500 medical index fell by 2.93%. At this stage, the growth stocks of US stocks have not stabilized, the volatility of the information technology industry is still high, and there will be further shocks in the field of biotechnology. Among the value stocks of U.S. stocks, non essential consumption, finance, public utilities, real estate and other fields in U.S. stocks have all experienced a correction this week. It is expected that the value stocks of U.S. stocks will fall further in the future. Considering that the valuation level of US stocks is still high at this stage, the US bond yield curve has also been inverted, the inflation pressure has further increased, and the monetary policy of the federal reserve tends to be further tightened, it is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate in the future; It is expected that this round of US stock adjustment is not only the structural adjustment of growth stocks, but there is adjustment pressure on most main tracks of US stocks. Considering that the valuation of the European market has no obvious advantages at this stage and is vulnerable to the linkage impact of the US stock market, combined with the consideration of tightening liquidity by the European Central Bank, it is expected that the European market will adjust in the future. From the perspective of emerging markets, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.33% this week. Considering that the liquidity of the Federal Reserve is in the tightening stage and the liquidity of many overseas emerging economies has changed, it is expected that the stock markets of Southeast Asia, Latin America and other overseas emerging markets will still fluctuate sharply in the future, and there will still be significant pressure on the bond and foreign exchange markets of many overseas emerging markets. The Hong Kong stock market continued to callback this week. Considering the industry weight distribution in the Hong Kong stock index at this stage, it is expected that the volatility of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China enterprise index will still be lower than that of Hang Seng technology index in the future. Considering the valuation advantages and good resilience of fundamentals, it is expected that Hang Seng H-share financial industry will still have a certain resilience in the medium term; Among them, the volatility of Hong Kong stock bank index is small. Considering the current capital construction cycle and economic cycle, it is expected that there will be good opportunities for rise in the medium term of construction projects; Among them, the resilience of large state-owned infrastructure related enterprises is relatively good, and the related benefit targets are China’s transportation construction, China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , etc.
Performance of US stock market in one week: all three major US stock indexes fell this week. The S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial index fell by 2.13%, 2.63% and 0.78% respectively.
Hong Kong stock market performance in one week: Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China enterprise index and Hang Seng technology index all fell this week, with declines of 1.62%, 1.4% and 2.32% respectively.
Important overseas economic data: in March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of us CPI was 8.5%, the highest since December 1981.
Risk tip: the Fed’s monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
